2006 Class 1A Kentucky High School Football Playoff Preview

[The Scribe]

Enjoy!

[The Scribe]

Region 1
Favorite: Mayfield
Top challenger: Metcalfe County

Outlook: Mayfield has been to the state semifinals 26 times in 31 seasons, counting its time in Class A and Class 2A in the soon-to-be-obsolete four-class system, and the Cardinals are 9-for-11 since dropping down to Class A in 1995. No surprise, then, that they are again the odds-on choice to emerge as western Kentucky's top team.

This year's Cardinals aren't as deep and talented as last year's state runner-up squad, but they have been seasoned by one of Class A's most difficult schedules. Mayfield won nail biters against perennial Class 3A powers Hopkinsville and Paducah Tilghman and its only two losses are to Marshall County and Graves County, both solid Class 4A teams.

QB Adam Shelton is a three-year starter and the centerpiece of the offense, a dual threat who has always been a solid runner but has improved his ability to throw the ball downfield.

Freshman Tyrese Murrell is a small, elusive TB that has recently started to share the load with senior Andy Trevarthan, who was projected as the starter before breaking his hand in a preseason scrimmage.

Landon Heath, a 295-pound tackle, has bounced back after an early-season knee injury and anchors the offensive line. LBs Brent Simpkins, Travis Brown and Logan Armstrong anchor a solid defense.

Kicker Tommy McNutt has a strong leg and his kickoffs have kept Mayfield's defense in good field position all season.

Turnovers have been a sore spot for the Cardinals in recent weeks, however, and could come back to haunt them in the postseason.

Mayfield's edge is its mystique earned by years of dominating the region. The Cardinals shouldn’t be threatened in the first two rounds. Fulton City, which won its first seven games before falling 22-8 to Mayfield, missed the playoffs after having to forfeit all of its wins for the use of an ineligible player.

Murray has shown some improvement, but has way too much youth to seriously challenge the Cardinals.

Metcalfe County just secured its third District 2 title in four years and has been competitive in its two previous playoff encounters with the Cardinals. The Hornets' offense is led by QB Will Warf and RBs Daniel Deleon and Jeffery White, the latter of whom is also a threat in the passing game.

Consistency has been an issue for Metcalfe, which lost to Adair County (a non-playoff team in Class 3A) and was nipped by McLean County in the regular-season finale in a game that didn't affect the standings.

Metcalfe and McLean will have a first-round rematch, as will Crittenden County and Russellville. Crittenden, led by sophomore RB Jeramie Sorina (579 yards in his last two outings) beat the Panthers 35-21 to close out the regular season.

Russellville, a top-10 team in preseason rankings, has plenty of speed, but the defense had problems stopping the run.

Regional finals prediction: Mayfield 24, Metcalfe County 6


Region 2
Favorite: Bardstown
Top challengers: Danville, Frankfort, Bethlehem, Louisville Holy Cross

Outlook: Bardstown might be the biggest beneficiary of the revised playoff system, which keeps teams in their own district for the first two rounds.

Under the old format, the Tigers would likely have faced the tough assignment of beating Danville and Frankfort (both top-5 teams) in back-to-back weeks to win the regional title.

In the current system, the Tigers will be favored to beat teams they handled easily during the regular season.

Bardstown lost several important pieces from last fall's state semifinalists, but reloaded with plenty of speed and a stingy defense that allows less than 150 yards per game and gave up just 55 points in 10 games.

RB Kelvin Scott is the leader of a balanced attack, having rushed for more than 1,000 yards while averaging more than 10 yards per carry. WenQuel Graves is a dangerous big-play receiver.

Scott, Graves and Vinny Calhoun - all mainstays of last year's dominant defensive unit - have combined for 14 interceptions, half of them returned for touchdowns.

The region's best first-round game will be between Bethlehem and Louisville Holy Cross, both of which were ranked in the BGP top 10 earlier this season. Bethlehem came from behind to beat the Cougars 25-20 five weeks ago and will meet each other in an intriguing first-round rematch.

Bethlehem has an offensive star in RB Billy Jackson. Holy Cross is led by RB Andy Rodman, WR Ron McDermott and 330-pound lineman Darren Bright.

Frankfort stunned Danville 33-13 two weeks ago in the game that decided the top seed in the District 4 playoffs, and the two teams should meet again in the second round.

RBs Antoine Robinson and E.J. Fields have combined for more than 2,000 yards for Frankfort. Fields, a track and field star and the defending state champion in the 400-meter dash, had the big game against Danville, with 202 yards and four TDs.

The Admirals will be thirsty to avenge their first district loss in seven years. QB Rich Witten - also one of the state's best baseball players - has been impressive in the passing game, and he has plenty of speed and offensive weaponry at his disposal.

Regional finals prediction: Bardstown 20, Danville 13


Region 3
Favorite: Beechwood
Top challengers: Newport Central Catholic, Covington Holy Cross, Lexington Christian, Raceland

Outlook: There was little doubt that this region was Class A's best in 2005, when Newport Central Catholic rolled to the state title and had two solid challengers in Lexington Christian and Beechwood.

Once again, Region 3 appears to have plenty of quality depth. Beechwood took over as the No. 1 team in the BGP rankings late in the regular season.

NewCath returns plenty of proven talent and has survived a brutal early-season schedule. Despite losing plenty of skill-position talent, Lexington Christian has rebuilt faster than anyone expected. Raceland, which kicked off the season with an upset win at Ashland, has lost only to district rival Lexington Christian.

Beechwood shook off a coaching change, with former defensive coordinator Noel Rash taking over for legendary mentor Mike Yeagle. The Tigers' two losses are to highly-ranked teams - Covington Catholic is one of Class 3A's top three clubs and Kettering Alter is 10-0 and ranked second in Ohio's Division III poll.

Tommie Bankemper (out with an injury), moved to the backfield this season, has rushed for more than 1,000 yards, and first-year starting QB Cody Elliott led the offense. LBs Mike Moreton and Hamilton Brooks head a solid defense.

NewCath was nearly forgotten by some after a rough start that included a one-point loss at Belfry and poor showings against big-school powers Covington Catholic and Ryle. Then came an upset loss to Covington Holy Cross. The Thoroughbreds seem to have put things together in the interim, even in blowing a big lead in a 28-21 loss to Beechwood, but are still flying under the radar a bit.

Michael Vicars is a proven RB, but has attracted much more attention with the 'Breds struggling to replace most of his departed skill-position teammates from the state championship team. Zach Kiernan (6-6, 255) is one of the state's best two-way linemen and has committed to Louisville.

Holy Cross has gotten another fine season from RB Anthony Penny and QB Matt Abeling. The Indians must turn around quickly from a poor performance season-ending 30-14 loss to Beechwood and win the rematch with NewCath to get past the first round.

Lexington Christian has an explosive young offense led by freshman TB Domonique Hayden and a team that's matured and come together since a humiliating 63-0 loss to Mercer County (Class 2A's top-ranked team) in the season opener. Last year's team pulled a similar feat, rallying from a one-sided loss to eventual Class 3A state champion Lexington Catholic to knock off Beechwood in the second round of the playoffs.

Raceland has one of the state's better QBs in senior Scott Grizzle and has rolled since a 21-10 midseason loss to Lexington Christian. Raceland also benefited from the change in playoff formats - instead of hosting NewCath, District 5's #3 seed, in the first round, the Rams will host Paris, a team it beat 40-8 last week, in the postseason opener.

Regional finals prediction: Beechwood 30, Raceland 14


Region 4
Favorite: Somerset
Top challengers: Pikeville, Harlan

Outlook: Somerset and Pikeville were each ranked in the BGP top 10 to start the season and have seemed for most of the season to be on a collision course to meet in the regional finals.

Both teams bring vastly different resumes to the table. Somerset started the season with four straight losses, three to good Class 3A clubs and the other to Danville, but has reeled off six straight wins with an ultra-explosive offense led by the state's most prolific QB-WR connection in Ross Deaton and John Cole.

Deaton has thrown for more than 2,500 yards and 32 TDs. Cole, also a standout DB, has 60-plus receptions for 1,400-plus yards and a whopping 23 TDs.

The Briar Jumpers' biggest question is the defense, which has struggled to stop the run and has allowed an average of 27 points per game. Somerset gave up just 27 points in its final four games, but there are still questions of whether that total reflects real improvement or a less-than-taxing schedule.

Somerset could face a challenge in Harlan, which the Jumpers beat 14-7 on a sloppy field in the regular-season finale and could meet again in the second round.

Pikeville had to retool its offense when QB John Michael Mayo suffered a concussion early in the season. Tim Honaker moved up in the backfield and has performed credibly, and Daniel Harmon and Ted Honaker have given the Panthers a nice 1-2 punch in the running game.

The Panthers rolled through their district schedule except for a puzzling 21-14 win over Jenkins, who they meet again in the first round.

Regional finals prediction: Somerset 33, Pikeville 28

Semifinal predictions
Bardstown 26, Mayfield 10
Beechwood 41, Somerset 27

Championship prediction
Beechwood 16, Bardstown 14