2006 Class 3A Kentucky High School Football Playoff Preview

[The Scribe]

Enjoy!

[The Scribe]

Region 1
Favorite: Bowling Green
Top Challengers: Hopkinsville, Paducah Tilghman

Outlook: Bowling Green enters the post-season with the bullseye squarely on their back.

Bowling Green, 9-1, with 9 straight wins, carries the BGP #1 ranking into the playoffs. They opened the season with a narrow 15-7 defeat at the hands of 4A #3 St. Xavier down at L.T. Smith Stadium on the campus of Western Kentucky University. They followed that loss up with two very impressive victories: over 4A #8 Christian Co. and 4A #7 (and cross-town rival) Warren Central.

Since that opening run of Top 10 4A opponents, no one has played the Purples within 30 points. In fact, in their last 7 victories they have out-scored their opponents 305 (note: they only "scored" 1 point in a forfeit win over Breckinridge Co.) to 26. Those are eye-popping numbers. The stingy Purple defense has carded 3 shutouts (including the forfeit), one of which came against district runner-up Warren East (9-1).

The Purple offense, not to be out-done, ends the season averaging 37.2 points per game. That number becomes even more impressive when you factor in the forfeit victory only tallied 1 point, and that they began the season with such a difficult non-District schedule. In fact, they are on a run of 40+ points in 5 of their last 6 games (excluding the forfeit, obviously).

Considering their first two playoff games will be against some combination of three district foes (Allen County-Scottsville and then the winner of Warren East and Franklin-Simpson) that they outscored 128-12 in the regular season, look for this high scoring streak to continue.

Bowling Green's biggest challenge to come out of Region 1 should come from District 1; either top-seed Paducah Tilghman or 2nd seed Hopkinsville.

Paducah Tilghman (5-5) enters the playoffs on a 5 game winning streak. The last victory in that string was an impressive home win over district rival Hopkinsville (5-5) 28-12. Tilghman was beset with injuries early in the year, however, since district play began, they have become healthier, and are hitting their stride at just the right time. In fact, since District play began, they have out-scored their opponents 179 - 38.

Fellow District 1 squad, Hopkinsville, appear to be the only other legitimate challenger to Bowling Green's hopes of coming out of Region 1. Like Paducah Tilghman, they enter the playoffs 5-5 and their story reads like a tale of two halves. Their season got off to a tough start with a loss to 4A #1 Male (9-0) 56-7. However, they appeared to get the ship on the right track once district play began, rolling off 4 straight victories before being upset last week in Paducah.

The winner of the 2nd round re-match for the District 1 title should produce Bowling Green's first challenge of this post-season.

Regional Finals Prediction: Bowling Green 34, Hopkinsville 17.


Region 2
Favorite: Central
Top Challengers: Southwestern, Boyle Co., Valley, and Doss

Outlook: As you can tell by the list of "top challengers," this Region is wide-open. However, if we had written this preview last week it would have been an entirely different tone.

District 3 top-seed, Central, was ranked #4 in the state and appeared to be cruising into the playoffs before getting dumped at home over the weekend by District 3rd seed Doss (6-4) 32-21. Not to mention, there is still the District 4 squads, Southwestern (7-3) and Boyle Co. (5-5), that will be heard from before this Region is settled.

As mentioned above, 8-2 Central was playing exceptionally well heading into the final weekend of the season. To that point, their only hiccup had been a narrow 13-7 defeat at the hands of previously Top 10 ranked 4A Pleasure Ridge Park (7-3). During that early stretch of the season Central had impressive wins over 4A Shelby Co. (5-5) 56-28 and District 2nd seed Valley (8-2) 36-0.

While Central's defense has been up and down on the season, shutting out Valley, Atherton (0-10) and Fairdale (4-6) and holding PRP to 13, yet allowing 27 to Waggener (4-6) and 32 to Doss, their offense has been high flying all year. They enter the playoffs averaging a Region 2 best 38 points per game (their defense is a Region 2 3rd stingiest at 14 points per game allowed). Included are 4 games where Central tallied 50+ points.

Valley, the 2nd seed in District 3 behind Central, appeared to have things rolling after the shutout loss at the hands of Central in Week #3. Their next 5 games, all wins, included victories over district 4th seed North Bullitt (7-3) and district 3rd seed Doss (6-4). However their run to the playoffs looked to be temporarily derailed when they got handled at home by playoff non-qualifier Bullitt East (6-4) 46-20. They bounced back last week to end the season on a positive note (and secure the 2nd seed in the district) with a win over Waggener (4-6) 31-8. Whether or not they can parlay that into success in the post-season is one of the things to keep an eye on moving forward.

The hottest team in District 3 heading into the playoffs is Doss (6-4). They looked to be in trouble for a playoff spot early on after losing to Bullitt East 14-6, and then, 3 weeks later to Valley, 41-35. However, they got a break when North Bullitt beat Bullitt East the last weekend, while creating their own break by beating 3A #7 Central (previously #4).

Their opening round game at Valley should be among the state's best opening round contests.

District 4 saw a slight changing of the guard this year when long-time Champion Boyle Co. (5-5) was temporarily un-seated by District top-seed Southwestern (7-3). Southwestern earned that top seed by the virtue of an impressive victory at Boyle Co. in the middle of the season, 28-7.

Southwestern will have to repeat that feat on their home field in Week #2 to earn the title of District Champion, which frankly, will be no small task. Southwestern enters the playoffs on a 5 game winning streak, none by a margin of less than 13 points.

Not to be forgotten in this Region this year are the Rebels of Boyle Co. Although they have undergone a tumultuous year, both on and off the field, they still enter the playoffs on a 4 game winning streak. Whether or not the ship has been righted will be tested in week 2 when they head to try and exact some revenge for that earlier loss at the hands of Southwestern. That game, which will be for the District 4 Championship, should be a much more competitive game than the mid-season battle.

As you can clearly see, Region 2 is easily the most wide-open this year in 3A. You could make a case for any of the above teams to come out of this group and face Bowling Green in the state semi-finals. However, we believe that the dominant team from this Region all year will regain their form in November.

Regional Finals Prediction: Central 38, Boyle Co. 20


Region 3
Favorite: Covington Catholic
Top Challengers: Highlands, Lexington Catholic

Outlook: As usual, this Region is clearly the strongest in 3A in the state of Kentucky. When looking at the Final BGP 3A Top 10 Poll, you find 5 Region 3 teams.

CovCath enters the playoffs ranked #2, Highlands #3, LexCath #4, East Jessamine #9 and Franklin Co. #10 (the East Jessamine versus Franklin Co. first round game should be a beauty). Clearly, who ever escapes this gauntlet will have earned their trip to the state semi-finals.

Covington Catholic (7-3) has to be considered the favorite based on their thrilling last-second victory over previously #2 ranked Highlands (6-4) in Ft. Thomas on Friday night. CovCath had their usual brutal schedule this year, dropping 3 games versus Ohio opponents (Elder 13-3, Cincy St. Xavier 23-3, and Columbus, OH Watterson 38-13), but enter the playoffs without a loss to a KY team yet this year. They opened the year with impressive victories over 4A Boone Co. (6-4) 44-2, 4A Dixie (5-5) 28-7, and BGP 1A #1 Beechwood (8-2) 34-0.

CovCath, while sporting a solid defense (3rd in the Region, allowing 14 points per game, against a very strong schedule) and a potentially high scoring offense (5th in the Region, scoring 30 points per game), also boasts one of the best (if not the best) kickers in KY. That could be quite a weapon as the playoffs move forward and points become at a premium. Covington Catholic, while riding the euphoria of a rare win over bitter-rival Highlands, knows that a return date with the Bluebirds is all but set for November 11 in Park Hills. The outcome of that game will go a long way to shaping these 3A playoffs down the road.

Highlands enters the playoffs fresh off the bitter disappointment of that last second loss to archrival CovCath. Highlands had spent every week of this season as the highest ranked team in Region 3, and according to most, the favorite to represent this semi-state in Louisville in the Finals. Even with that loss, the 6-4 Bluebirds remain a very, very dangerous team. Even though they played one of the state's toughest schedules (losses to Cincy Elder 21-18, 4A #3 Lou. St. Xavier 35-21, and Columbus, OH DeSales 30-25, and wins over 4A Dixie 48-0, Southwestern (7-3) 49-14, and 4A Madison Central (6-4) 49-3), their run-oriented, but balanced, attack averages 39 points per game (3rd best in their Region).

Lexington Catholic, while they will face tougher intra-district competition than in recent past, enters the playoffs ranked 4th in the final BGP 3A Top 10. Additionally, the 8-1 Knights boast an impressive 8 game winning streak since dropping the season opener at 4A #3 St. Xavier 47-0. Since that defeat they have responded with some outstanding wins, namely: over 4A #6 Scott Co. (7-3) 43-36, over 3A #10 Franklin Co. (8-2) 38-35, and over 3A #9 East Jessamine (8-2) 44-29.

Their typically high-flying offense, surviving after the loss of NC State-bound Justin Burke last year, are leading the Region in points scored with 42 points per game. Doubly impressive when you factor in they were shutout in Week #1.

While they face a very good opponent in Round 2, either Franklin Co. or East Jessamine, there is every reason in the World to believe they'll be waiting for the survivor of the CCH / Highlands battle in the Region Championship.

While East Jessamine and Franklin Co. will make for a very exciting first round game, the winner will have their hands full facing LexCath in Round 2 in Lexington. That will probably prove to be too tall a mountain to climb.

Regional Finals Prediction: Highlands 41, Lexington Catholic 38


Region 4
Favorite: Johnson Central
Top Challengers: Rockcastle Co. and Bell Co.

Outlook: This Region is the real wild-card Region this year in 3A.

Johnson Central is 10-0, ranked #5 in BGP's Final 3A poll, and has been the most dominant team in this class versus their competition this year. However, fairly or not, questions abound about them because of their lack of quality non-district opponents (4A North Laurel (3-7) or 4A Bryan Station (2-8) would be their best intra-state non-district opponent). That is not to say that Johnson Central isn't an outstanding team, and it's not to say that they aren't more than capable of beating whoever comes out of Region 3, it's just that no one is quite sure.

This much is sure, if Johnson Central predictably wins their District Crown, and then is able to beat the District Champ from District 7 (either Rockcastle Co. [9-1] or Bell Co. [8-2]), they will be only 1 win away from playing in Louisville for a 3A State Title.

Johnson Central enters these playoffs with all of the hoopla of a State Top 5 team. They average 45 points a game and allow only 8. Only three teams have even reached double figures against them: 4A Bryan Station (2-8) scored 14, Lawrence Co. (2-8) scored 12, and Boyd Co. (4-6, and their first round opponent) scored 12. In fact, their potential 2nd round match-up of either Ashland Blazer (8-2) or Mason Co. (7-3) was defeated by Johnson Central by a combined score of 75-7. Clearly the expectation is that they easily roll into the Regional Championship game.

Awaiting Johnson Central in that Regional Championship game will be the team that survives the traditional District Championship battle in District 7: Rockcastle Co. or Bell Co. Rockcastle Co., the district's top-seed, enters the playoffs off of a successful 9-1 campaign. Their only blemish of the season came against 4A Lincoln Co. (9-1) 21-18. Outside of that contest, Rockcastle Co. boasts as their best win an 18-14 home victory over likely 2nd round opponent Bell Co.

Rockcastle Co.'s offense has been feast or famine this year, while averaging 39 points per game, having outbursts of 74 (Bourbon Co. [0-10], 61 (first round opponent Clay Co. [7-3], and 54 (Madison Southern [4-6]). Their defense has been it's normally outstanding self, allowing a Region 2nd best only 11 points per game.

Bell Co., 8-2, will have a chance to exact some revenge on Rockcastle Co. when they meet in Round 2 of the playoffs for the District 7 Title. Like their archrivals, their offense has been a bit spotty this year. Although they have averaged 30 points per game, they have struggled to light up the scoreboard on occasions as well (notably, against 2A Leslie Co. (5-5) and versus Rockcastle Co.). If their offense can put points on the board consistently, their defense (3rd in the Region at 12 points allowed per game) should keep them in nearly every game.

While the 2nd round tilt at Rockcastle Co. between them and Bell Co. should be a great slobber-knocker, Johnson Central looks to be too tough for either team.

[B]Regional Final Prediction: Johnson Central 28, Rockcastle Co. 10

Semifinal Predictions:
Bowling Green 31, Central 21
Highlands 27, Johnson Central 21

Championship Prediction:
Highlands 20, Bowling Green 17