The Scribe
11-07-2007, 12:42 PM
Class 6A Playoff Preview
by Oxnard
In 2007 the classes in KHSAA Football have been increased from 4 to 6, in theory to increase competitiveness within the classes and to allow more teams to compete in the playoffs.
However, the cluster of teams at the top echelon of Class 6A looks very similar to the past several years in what was formerly the class for the largest schools, Class 4A. As usual, the “Big Three” of Saint Xavier, Trinity, and Male are once again prominent occupying the #1, #2, and #5 positions in the BGP Rankings at the end of the regular season. These three teams have combined to win 19 of the last 22 titles in 4A.
Three other teams with solid seasons are expected to provide the chief opposition to this “Big Three” monopoly. BGP #3 Manual, #5 Henry Clay, and #6 Scott County stand ready to meet the challenge.
Saint Xavier is the only undefeated team in the 6A playoffs, holding regular season victories over Trinity, Male and Manual.
With the new playoff format now in its second year, district matchups beginning in the third round have once again been shuffled.
Now it is time to take a look at the road to the championship.
DISTRICT 1 VS. DISTRICT 3 – On paper this faceoff appears to be somewhat one-sided with Louisville District 3 being the residence of three Top 10 teams against zero Top 10 teams in Western Kentucky District 1. Nevertheless upsets can and do occur, which offers hope for all these playoff teams.
In District 1, Marshall County enters with the top seed, although they were defeated by number two seed, Graves County, 36-34 in an early season encounter. To meet again, the Marshals must first get by Henderson County, while the Eagles must confront a pesky Daviess County squad, which they narrowly defeated 15-14 in mid-season.
Marshall County (7-3) features a strong rushing attack led by all-state candidate, Alan Williams, who has rushed for 1,292 yards on 186 carries and 17 TDs in the first nine games. Alan demonstrates his great versatility by also serving as the Marshals leading receiver with 34 catches for 277 yards for an additional 4TDs. QB Stephen Barga provides some balance to the offense, passing for 1179 yards and 13 TDs.
Graves County (7-3) has had a bit of a rollercoaster season, edging Marshall County early, suffering defeats to Henderson County and Apollo in mid-season, then finishing strong with impressive wins over strong Christian County and Calloway County teams. The Eagles are led by RB Jordan McManus (5-10, 180) in their wing-t attack. Jordan held school records for both total rushing yardage (2,645) and rushing yardage in one game (266) entering this season, and has added immensely to his rushing total this season.
Daviess County (7-3) has used a very impressive passing offense for much of its success, and competed well in its district losses to Marshall County and Graves County. QB Cole Lanham has thrown for 2,414 yards and 25 TDs. Wide receiver Scotty Smith has been Cole’s chief target with 63 receptions for 1,056 yards and 10 TDs.
Henderson County has only a 2-8 record entering the playoffs, but one of those two victories was a 35-24 win at Graves County, showing that on any given night strange things can happen. The Colonels rely heavily on their running backs, and they are led by a good one. Junior RB Almondo Theus (5-8, 150) used his speed and quickness to accumulate 1,243 yards and 12 TDs in the first 8 games. On the negative side, the Colonels have suffered badly through the air, being out passed 1,782 to 310.
In the District 1 playoffs, look for Marshall County to dispatch Henderson County and Graves County to edge Daviess County in the 1st Round. In the 2nd Round Graves County will once again narrowly defeat Marshall County in an offensive shootout and move on to face the District 3 winner.
In District 3, the undefeated and #1 ranked St. X. Tigers hold the top seed and will confront a Butler squad whom they defeated 76-0 in mid-season. The second seeded and #3 ranked Manual will be tested by a #9 ranked Pleasure Ridge Park, whom they handled earlier by a surprisingly easy 34-6 count. This is one tough district where two of the Top 10 teams will be eliminated in the first two playoff rounds. I’m sure that all three of these highly ranked teams yearns for a return to the former cross-district early round pairings.
Saint Xavier (10-0) enters the playoffs having outscored their opposition 379-86. The Tigers defensive performance becomes even more impressive when one considers that offensive juggernauts Trinity, Male, Manual, and Lexington Catholic are among their victims. LB Nick Heuser (6-0, 210) leads the team in tackles, and DT Matt Smith (6-4, 265) is a prime all-state candidate and is committed to UK. Offensively, St. X. is led by their run/pass QB Ben Zoeller (6-0, 200) and junior RB Deuce Finch (5-10, 197). In eight games, Finch has rushed for 1389 yards on 140 carries, while in six games Zoeller has rushed for 428 yards on 42 carries and provides a legitimate passing threat.
Sadly, Finch suffered an MCL injury in their ninth game against Central, and will be sidelined for at least the first two playoff rounds. Since the Tigers are expected to face a Manual team in the second round, whom they only defeated 21-14 during the regular season, this injury to Deuce could prove quite costly.
Manual (9-1) runs a high-powered wing-t offense with marvelous pass (1,848 yds.)/run (2,068 yds.) balance. QB Joey Harness does the throwing, while Gerry Cooper, Andre Wells, and Aaron Cosby provide the main receiving hands. The rushing attack is led by Rhayven Smith (6.5 avg.) and DJ Hawk (7.8 avg.).
The Crimsons are blessed with two D1 linemen in Dave Ulinski (6-6, 280) and Brandon Young (6-3, 255). Ulinski has already committed to UK. As a team, Manual has outscored their opponents 378-180, while facing such Top 10 teams as St. X., Ballard, Pleasure Ridge Park, and Male. Without overlooking PRP, the Crimsons are itching for another shot at #1 St. X.
Pleasure Ridge Park enters the playoffs ranked #9, but despite having only a 4-6 record, they hold a season scoring advantage of 280-255. The Panthers have played a schedule from hell, but their hope is that it has hardened them for a successful playoff run. PRP has rolled up 2,136 yards on the ground behind RBs Demarcus Weakly, Ethan Henry and Mike Bibbs. QB Josh Deacon has supplied some offensive diversity with his arm by passing for 1,110 yards and 13 TDs.
The Panthers are also blessed with one of the state’s most heavily recruited lineman in Brandon Newman (6-1, 300). Newman committed in the preseason to Notre Dame.
Butler (0-10) is one of those teams which leaves you scratching your head about why they should be in the playoffs. The answer is simple. When the KHSAA went from four to six classes, many districts were reduced to only four teams, so no matter what the record, you automatically qualify. In the preseason the Bears were expected to be somewhat better, but have suffered tremendously with players quitting, transfers, academic casualties, and injuries. They have been reduced to playing a lot of freshmen, including their QB. The leading rusher is Ricky Mason with 850 yards and 6 TDs. They do have an outstanding punter in Keinan Cullen, who has averaged 45.7 yards on 34 kicks.
In the District 3 playoffs, the absence of Deuce Finch will not provide much relief for Butler, as St. X. rolls big into the 2nd Round. Pleasure Ridge Park becomes the first Top 10 team to be eliminated as Manual moves on to face St. X. In the battle between #1 and #3, St. X. relies on their defense and a running back by committee offense to pull out a hard fought 17-14 win over Manual.
District 1 vs. District 3 finals prediction: Saint Xavier 38 – Graves County 13
DISTRICT 2 VS. DISTRICT 4 – This battle may prove to be interesting since each district has one Top 10 member, and a #4 seed already has a major win over the #1 seed in its own district.
In District 2, Greenwood has claimed the top spot, which may be bad news for them, since their opponent, Nelson County blasted them at Nelson County 53-19 in mid-season. #2 seed, Meade County, has worked themselves into the #10 position in the BGP Rankings with seven straight victories, one of which is a 31-0 victory over their first round competition, North Hardin.
Greenwood (5-5) upended Meade County 28-21 at home early, and thus won the top district spot when both finished with 3-1 records. For the Gators, this season has been one of either win close or lose big, as they have been outscored 228-140. Historically, they have been noted as mainly a rushing team, but have been fairly balanced this season with approximately 1500 yards on the ground and 1200 through the air.
The running load has been equally divided among Chris Page, Cory Henon, and Andrew Comer. Ty Downing to Chris Page and Ricky Adams has been the main air combo. The Gators have one of the top district linemen in Chase Lockhart (6-0, 280).
Meade County (7-3) narrowly dropped its first three outings to Fern Creek, John Hardin, and Greenwood, and then went undefeated for the rest of the season.. The Green Wave have outscored their opponents by a 254-137 margin. Known for its hard-nosed defense, Meade really clamped down allowing only 62 points in their final seven games, which included wins over highly ranked 5A teams, Owensboro and Woodford County.
Senior LB/DL Chris Roe is one of the state’s better defensive players. QB JL Cannady, WR Daniel Allen, and RBs Nick Stinnett and Alex Furnival supply most of the offensive fireworks.
North Hardin (3-7), as their record shows, could never find a way to overcome the graduation loss of their multi-year offensive leaders, RB Mark Terry and QB/WR Andre Autry. The historically potent Trojan attack has been outscored 237 – 157 this season. Although the attack has been balanced, it only generated around 100 yards passing and 100 yards rushing per game.
QB Joe French is the leading passer and RB Larod King is the leading ground gainer. Defensively, North Hardin is led by DL Cameron Tucker and DBs Joe Draper and Scott Schwartz.
Nelson County (4-6) has played a lot of teams tough early, only to run out of steam late in the game. Despite their losing record, they have outscored their opponents 284-270. The Cardinals offense is weighted heavily towards running the ball with a 2,577/398 run to pass yardage ratio.
Nelson loves to pound you with the three-headed rushing monster of Devin Boone (1,011 yards and 12 TDs), Jordan Keene (405 yards and 3 TDs), and De’Sean Patterson (376 yards and 3 TDs). The Cardinals can score big points. If the defense can get some stops, they are quite capable of springing an upset.
In the District 2 1st Round, Nelson County has the confidence from its first encounter and knows they can beat Greenwood. The Cardinals do it again, and the #4 seed sidelines the #1 seed. Although North Hardin lost to Meade 31-0 in the regular season, this repeat game is much closer, but still a win for the Green Wave.
In the 2nd Round, Meade County bursts Nelson County’s bubble and moves on to Round 3.
In District 4, Male enters competition as the top seed and #5 ranked team in the state. The Bulldogs already own a monstrous 61-0 win over #4 seed Bullitt Central. #2 seed Fern Creek was extended a little in their earlier game against #3 seed Southern before pulling away for a 35-21 victory.
Male (8-2) lost a lot of talent off of a super team last year, but still reloaded this season with enough fast and agile athletes to blow most competitors out of the water. Through the regular season they amassed a 10-game victory margin of 474-171. Nonetheless, a lack of size and strength on the lines and a much less efficient passing attack led to their two major losses to St. X. (42-6) and Manual (34-14) and revealed some vulnerability.
The Bulldogs are led by two super athletes. Junior RB Justin Green (reigning 100 meter state champion) through 9 games has accumulated 1,259 yards in 119 carries and 24 TDs. TE/LB/DE Dexter Heyman (6-4, 225) has been called by Coach Bob Redman one of the most heavily recruited players he has ever coached, and is a Mr. Football candidate.
Fern Creek (7-3) opened the season with six straight victories over light competition, but when then confronted with stronger teams (Ryle, Male, Ballard), the Tigers surrendered 152 points in lopsided consecutive losses. They then closed out the season with a very impressive 33-7 win over a good Eastern team. Overall, Fern Creek outscored their opponents 313 -249. Their balanced offense is led by QB Brian Hynes who passed for 996 yards and 13 TDs in the first 8 games, and RB Jimmy Welch who ran for 1002 and 9 TDs in the same 8 games.
The Tigers can also lay claim to one of the top two-way linemen in the state, Ryan Benzik (6-5, 315). The major area of concern for the Tigers is their questionable defensive ability.
Southern (4-6) has played everyone close with the two exceptions of Male and Eastern. They have been outscored by a 219-273 count for the season. Their offensive attack is mostly balanced with QB Randy Roberts throwing to Calvin Ferguson, while RBs Erik Pickett, Maurice Thomas, and Ferguson lead the land charge. LBs Trevor Knight and Jordan Blakemore are focal points for the defense.
Bullitt Central (3-7) started the season well with two victories, but then the roof caved in on both their offense and defense. They only reached the victory circle again in a season finale OT upset against North Oldham. The Cougars were drastically outscored in their season by a 153-320 margin. Offensively, Bullitt Central lacks any semblance of a passing game and relies almost exclusively on the run.
In the District 4 1st Round, Male will quickly dispose of Bullitt Central, while Fern Creek ends the season for Southern. Although Male hung a 55-33 loss on Fern Creek the first time they met, the Tigers give the Bulldogs a scare this time before finally surrendering in Round 2, 37-32.
District 2 vs. District 4 finals prediction: Male 27 – Meade County 21
DISTRICT 5 VS. DISTRICT 7 – Some of the best games could come out of this confrontation. With Trinity rated #2, Henry Clay rated #4 , and Ballard rated #7 in the BGP Class 6A Rankings, plus Lafayette and Eastern having strong teams, expect some major fireworks.
In District 5, two-time reigning champion Trinity claims the #1 seed and will face a Seneca squad which it defeated earlier 55-3. #2 seed Eastern hopes to evade #3 seed Ballard as it did in a narrow 23-22 win last month.
Trinity (8-2), with losses only Ohio’s #1 team, Cincinnati Saint Xavier (47-31), and Kentucky’s #1 team, Louisville Saint Xavier (24-14), is intent on claiming its sixth state championship out of the last seven years. For the season the Rocks have outscored their opponents by a massive 438-170.
Running what is probably the most sophisticated offense in Kentucky, they are equally adept at attacking teams on the ground and in the air. QB Will Stein has put up astounding numbers (179 completions in 259 attempts, 2447 yards, 32 TDs, and only 4 interceptions), with the speedy Dutton twins serving as the main receivers. Lightening-quick RB Tim Phillips has rushed 137 times for 1, 032 yards and 18 TDs. On defense the Rocks feature three legitimate D1 players in Sr. DL Sam Robey, Sr. LB Wes Weitlauf, and Jr. LB Jordan Whiting, who has already committed to Ohio State.
Eastern (7-3) fans are suffering some trauma over the injury status of super all-around QB Steve Ferguson, who went out early in the season-ending loss to Fern Creek. There has been no word as yet on how many games, if any, that he would miss. In the first nine games, Ferguson ran 148 times for 975 yards and 12 TDs, and also passed for 1,106 yards and an additional 12 TDs. The team as a whole has outscored its opponents by 298-209. Without Ferguson, the Eagles chances of advancing in the playoffs are poor at best.
Ballard (5-5) has played an extremely difficult schedule with their losses coming to St. X., Trinity, Manual, Male, and Eastern. They number Pleasure Ridge Park and Fern Creek among their victories. Running a well-balanced pass/run attack, the Bruins have outscored their opposition by 278 to 257. QB TJ Pryor has some of the same athletic qualities as Ferguson of Eastern with his pass/run ability. Ballard also has two highly gifted RBs in Sir Weakley and Paul Perkins.
Seneca (3-7) has competed strongly, but not very successfully in most of their contests this season. They have been outscored in their 10 game schedule 335-218. The Red Hawks rely on a balanced offense. QB DaMarcus Smith has thrown for 1371 yards and 12 TDs, with WR Broderick Green being the major benefactor (38receptions, 769 yards, 9TDs). At running back, Seneca has one of the best kept secrets in the state. Workhorse Anthony Knott has followed up
last season’s 1,388 yard effort with an even better 1,433 result this year.
In the District 5 1st Round, Seneca once again proves no match for mighty Trinity. In the other contest, however, with or without the presence of Eastern star QB Steve Ferguson, Ballard reverses its earlier loss to the Eagles. In the 2nd Round, Ballard, which had lost previously to Trinity 48-23, makes a much better showing but still falls short by 14 points to the Rocks.
In District 7, powerful Henry Clay holds the #1 seed and will meet #4 seed Tates Creek. The Blue Devils already own an explosive 45-0 victory over the Commodores. #2 seed Lafayette will tackle dangerous #3 Paul Dunbar, from whom they barely escaped previously by a narrow 16-14 final score.
Henry Clay (8-1) was only able to schedule 9 games this season, and suffered its only loss to LaSalle, a strong Ohio school. The Blue Devils are a veritable offensive machine, having outscored the opposition 359 to 184. Leading the way is QB Ryan Phillipi who can both pass (122 completions in 192 attempts, 1796 yards, 18 TDs, 1 interception) and run (136 carries for 805 yards and 11 TDs). Ryan’s chief pass receiver is heavily D1 recruited Aaron Boyd (6-5, 200) who has snared 49 passes for 1037 yards and 14 TDs. Super quick and strong RB Dontey Gay (5-10, 190) complements the rushing game with team high totals of 145 carries for 1,264 yards and 14 TDs.
Linemen Samuel Simpson (6-5, 250), Nigel Wells (6-3, 310), and Michael Hamm (6-1, 240) provide a strong push up front for Henry Clay.
Lafayette (8-2) has a recent history of great regular season performances followed by being the victim of an early playoff upset. The Generals were crushed at home by Trinity 56-6 in their last game. What effect with this have on the team in the playoffs? As a team, they outscored their opponents 249-180. QB Logan Bunch’s arm is the main offensive weapon for Lafayette as he has passed for 1,708 yards and 10 TDs. WR Tommy Gifford corralled 44 of these passes for 716 yards and 4 TDs. The Generals also have possibly the best punter/kicker in Kentucky in Jake Stephens.
Paul Dunbar (3-7), despite their poor record, has shown with their win over Madison Central and their narrow loss to Lafayette, that they should not be taken for granted. The Bulldogs have been outscored 277 to 194. With almost a 4 to 1 ratio of running yardage to passing yardage, Lafayette is mainly one dimensional. The leading ball carriers are QB Marquis Clay (591 yds.) and Jerrell Greene (577 yds.)
Tates Creek (2-8) has been outscored 340-196. The Commodores have suffered greatly on defense, and have been mainly a solely running team. Their leading rusher is 3-year starter Ty Sparks, who came into this season with more than 3,000 yards.
In District 7 Round 1, Henry Clay will be able to rest its starters early against Tates Creek, and Lafayette will overcome its playoff jinx by defeating Paul Dunbar. In Round 2, Henry Clay will ease by Lafayette 37 – 24.
District 5 vs. District 7 finals prediction: Trinity 42 – Henry Clay 34
DISTRICT 6 VS. DISTRICT 8 – This may well prove to be the most balanced battle of all. Scott County and Boone County are the sole teams with BGP Top 10 Rankings, coming in at #6 and #8 respectively.
In District 6, Boone County has won the #1 seed, and with it they have won the right to meet #4 Campbell County, whom they defeated 28-0 in an early season contest. #2 seed, Ryle will have to confront #3 Simon Kenton, who already owns one 18-10 upset verdict over the Raiders.
Boone County (7-3) has outscored their opposition by 308 – 192. The Rebels still prefer to pound the ball at you with a big back behind a powerful offensive line, but unlike past years, they have opened the playbook a little to allow some effective complimentary passes. This slight addition has made them much more dangerous. Hard running RB Cory Farris has smashed for 2,250 yards on 288 carries and 22 TDs. QB Shawn Boggle handles the passing chores (79 for 151, 1193 yards, 9TDs) while Mercier Doucette provides the main receiving hands (38 receptions for 668 yards and 7 TDs). Did you ever think you would hear the words “Boone” and “pass” in the same sentence?
Ryle (6-4) has outscored their season opponents 302-207. The Raiders, with their 3:1 rush to pass yardage ratio, could actually be classified as a less balanced team than Boone County. Adam Schmitz serves as their workhorse RB, achieving 1250 yards on 200 carries for 18 TDs. The Ryle team’s performance is a bit of an enigma. They travel to Fern Creek and defeat a previously undefeated squad by a massive 55-10 score. Then two weeks later they get outscored 35-0 in the 2nd half to lose 45-10 against a 6-4 Dixie Heights team. You just can’t be sure from week to week which team is going to show up.
Simon Kenton (6-4) was outscored 251-216 in the regular season. Their offensive attack is somewhat balanced between run and pass. RBs TJ Dawalt (428 yds., 5 TDs) and Miles Simpson (345 yds., 6 TDs) lead the Pioneer ground assault. For passing, it’s usually QB Patrick Bustle (1,191 yds., 12 TDs) throwing to WR Nathan Ponzer (591 yds., 8 TDs). Much like Ryle, based on the wins and losses, you can never be sure which Simon Kenton team will be playing in the next game.
Campbell County (6-4) outscored their opponents 228 to 189. The Camels run a balanced pass/run offense, but really rely a lot on their defense to control the game. The best player for Campbell is LB Brian Sauerback, a four-year starter who also plays OG on offense. QB Nathan Kidwell leads the passing attack, while RB Grant Rose amasses the most ground yardage for the Camels.
In District 6 Round 1, the potential for upsets is there, but I just don’t see that happening. Both Boone and Ryle will escape to Round 2. The first meeting between these rivals resulted in an exciting 30-24 Boone County victory in overtime. This second contest, however, will result in a wider victory margin, and the Rebels will move on to the 3rd Round.
In District 8, Scott County has secured the #1 seed and will begin their playoff run against a dangerous #4 seed Shelby County. When these same two teams met in mid-season at Shelby County, the Cardinals were greatly extended before walking away with a 40-34 win over the pass-happy Rockets. Madison Central won the #2 seed and must now face a George Rogers Clark team whom they defeated earlier 45-26.
Scott County (9-1) seems to have finally gotten their program to the stage where they no longer rebuild but rather reload. For the past several years they have become a constant figure in the Top 10. This Cardinals team has outscored its opposition 298 to 178, and experienced their only loss to 4A power Lexington Catholic. With an attack based heavily on the running game, Scott County plays close to the vest and relies heavily on its defense for its success. QB Brandon Lawson commands the offense and RBs Logan Travis and Jose Smith provide the major ground propulsion. This is a sound team.
Madison Central (6-4) has outscored its opponents 254-213. The Indians got off to a flying start with 5 straight victories to open the season, but then hit the meat of their schedule and dropped four of their final five games. That’s really not the way you like to go into the playoffs. Not having very large linemen, the Indians rely on a balanced pass/run attack which maximizes the efficiency of their small, but quick athletes. Ricky Rhodes leads the RBs with 595 yards and 10 TDs. QB Chaz Hope has passed for 956 yards and 8 TDs. On defense, because of their lack of size, the Indians have proven to be extremely vulnerable to teams with strong power rushing ability.
George Rogers Clark (3-7) had high expectations, but were somewhat crushed when they lost the first four games by a grand total of 12 points. The losing streak extended for two more games before the Cardinals tasted their first victory in a big 35-18 upset of Shelby County. After playing Scott County close in another loss, GRC closed with two more wins, and thus enter the playoffs on a positive note. Despite their 3-7 record, the Cardinals scored exactly the same amount of points are the opposition, 292. RBs Travis Conner (804 yds.) and Ryan Williams (826 yds.) lead the run-orientated offense. QB Dougie Mason has provided some offensive diversity by throwing for 1,024 yards.
Shelby County (6-4) placed its destiny in the hands of super QB Alex Matthews (2,493 yards and 27 TDs in 8 games) and virtually abandoned any semblance of offensive balance. With a team short on running back skills and a woeful, defense the Rockets had little choice but to rely on outscoring the opposition through the air. This philosophy produced many exciting games, chief of which was a losing 57-54 shootout loss to powerful Manual. Early in the eighth game against Madison Central, Matthews went down with what was diagnosed as a separated shoulder, and it appeared that he was lost for the remainder of the year. However, he came back for the final game and passed for 423 yards to produce a 40-18 victory over Oldham County. With Matthews back, anything is possible for the Rockets.
In District 8 Round 1, in a major offensive shootout Scott County edges Shelby County, while Madison Central escapes a near upset at the hands of George Rogers Clark. In Round 2, Scott County proves to be too much for the Indians of Madison Central.
District 6 vs. District 8 finals prediction: Boone County 28 – Scott County 14
Semifinal Predictions
Saint Xavier 35 – Male 23
Trinity 45 – Boone County 21
Championship
Saint Xavier 28 – Trinity 24
by Oxnard
In 2007 the classes in KHSAA Football have been increased from 4 to 6, in theory to increase competitiveness within the classes and to allow more teams to compete in the playoffs.
However, the cluster of teams at the top echelon of Class 6A looks very similar to the past several years in what was formerly the class for the largest schools, Class 4A. As usual, the “Big Three” of Saint Xavier, Trinity, and Male are once again prominent occupying the #1, #2, and #5 positions in the BGP Rankings at the end of the regular season. These three teams have combined to win 19 of the last 22 titles in 4A.
Three other teams with solid seasons are expected to provide the chief opposition to this “Big Three” monopoly. BGP #3 Manual, #5 Henry Clay, and #6 Scott County stand ready to meet the challenge.
Saint Xavier is the only undefeated team in the 6A playoffs, holding regular season victories over Trinity, Male and Manual.
With the new playoff format now in its second year, district matchups beginning in the third round have once again been shuffled.
Now it is time to take a look at the road to the championship.
DISTRICT 1 VS. DISTRICT 3 – On paper this faceoff appears to be somewhat one-sided with Louisville District 3 being the residence of three Top 10 teams against zero Top 10 teams in Western Kentucky District 1. Nevertheless upsets can and do occur, which offers hope for all these playoff teams.
In District 1, Marshall County enters with the top seed, although they were defeated by number two seed, Graves County, 36-34 in an early season encounter. To meet again, the Marshals must first get by Henderson County, while the Eagles must confront a pesky Daviess County squad, which they narrowly defeated 15-14 in mid-season.
Marshall County (7-3) features a strong rushing attack led by all-state candidate, Alan Williams, who has rushed for 1,292 yards on 186 carries and 17 TDs in the first nine games. Alan demonstrates his great versatility by also serving as the Marshals leading receiver with 34 catches for 277 yards for an additional 4TDs. QB Stephen Barga provides some balance to the offense, passing for 1179 yards and 13 TDs.
Graves County (7-3) has had a bit of a rollercoaster season, edging Marshall County early, suffering defeats to Henderson County and Apollo in mid-season, then finishing strong with impressive wins over strong Christian County and Calloway County teams. The Eagles are led by RB Jordan McManus (5-10, 180) in their wing-t attack. Jordan held school records for both total rushing yardage (2,645) and rushing yardage in one game (266) entering this season, and has added immensely to his rushing total this season.
Daviess County (7-3) has used a very impressive passing offense for much of its success, and competed well in its district losses to Marshall County and Graves County. QB Cole Lanham has thrown for 2,414 yards and 25 TDs. Wide receiver Scotty Smith has been Cole’s chief target with 63 receptions for 1,056 yards and 10 TDs.
Henderson County has only a 2-8 record entering the playoffs, but one of those two victories was a 35-24 win at Graves County, showing that on any given night strange things can happen. The Colonels rely heavily on their running backs, and they are led by a good one. Junior RB Almondo Theus (5-8, 150) used his speed and quickness to accumulate 1,243 yards and 12 TDs in the first 8 games. On the negative side, the Colonels have suffered badly through the air, being out passed 1,782 to 310.
In the District 1 playoffs, look for Marshall County to dispatch Henderson County and Graves County to edge Daviess County in the 1st Round. In the 2nd Round Graves County will once again narrowly defeat Marshall County in an offensive shootout and move on to face the District 3 winner.
In District 3, the undefeated and #1 ranked St. X. Tigers hold the top seed and will confront a Butler squad whom they defeated 76-0 in mid-season. The second seeded and #3 ranked Manual will be tested by a #9 ranked Pleasure Ridge Park, whom they handled earlier by a surprisingly easy 34-6 count. This is one tough district where two of the Top 10 teams will be eliminated in the first two playoff rounds. I’m sure that all three of these highly ranked teams yearns for a return to the former cross-district early round pairings.
Saint Xavier (10-0) enters the playoffs having outscored their opposition 379-86. The Tigers defensive performance becomes even more impressive when one considers that offensive juggernauts Trinity, Male, Manual, and Lexington Catholic are among their victims. LB Nick Heuser (6-0, 210) leads the team in tackles, and DT Matt Smith (6-4, 265) is a prime all-state candidate and is committed to UK. Offensively, St. X. is led by their run/pass QB Ben Zoeller (6-0, 200) and junior RB Deuce Finch (5-10, 197). In eight games, Finch has rushed for 1389 yards on 140 carries, while in six games Zoeller has rushed for 428 yards on 42 carries and provides a legitimate passing threat.
Sadly, Finch suffered an MCL injury in their ninth game against Central, and will be sidelined for at least the first two playoff rounds. Since the Tigers are expected to face a Manual team in the second round, whom they only defeated 21-14 during the regular season, this injury to Deuce could prove quite costly.
Manual (9-1) runs a high-powered wing-t offense with marvelous pass (1,848 yds.)/run (2,068 yds.) balance. QB Joey Harness does the throwing, while Gerry Cooper, Andre Wells, and Aaron Cosby provide the main receiving hands. The rushing attack is led by Rhayven Smith (6.5 avg.) and DJ Hawk (7.8 avg.).
The Crimsons are blessed with two D1 linemen in Dave Ulinski (6-6, 280) and Brandon Young (6-3, 255). Ulinski has already committed to UK. As a team, Manual has outscored their opponents 378-180, while facing such Top 10 teams as St. X., Ballard, Pleasure Ridge Park, and Male. Without overlooking PRP, the Crimsons are itching for another shot at #1 St. X.
Pleasure Ridge Park enters the playoffs ranked #9, but despite having only a 4-6 record, they hold a season scoring advantage of 280-255. The Panthers have played a schedule from hell, but their hope is that it has hardened them for a successful playoff run. PRP has rolled up 2,136 yards on the ground behind RBs Demarcus Weakly, Ethan Henry and Mike Bibbs. QB Josh Deacon has supplied some offensive diversity with his arm by passing for 1,110 yards and 13 TDs.
The Panthers are also blessed with one of the state’s most heavily recruited lineman in Brandon Newman (6-1, 300). Newman committed in the preseason to Notre Dame.
Butler (0-10) is one of those teams which leaves you scratching your head about why they should be in the playoffs. The answer is simple. When the KHSAA went from four to six classes, many districts were reduced to only four teams, so no matter what the record, you automatically qualify. In the preseason the Bears were expected to be somewhat better, but have suffered tremendously with players quitting, transfers, academic casualties, and injuries. They have been reduced to playing a lot of freshmen, including their QB. The leading rusher is Ricky Mason with 850 yards and 6 TDs. They do have an outstanding punter in Keinan Cullen, who has averaged 45.7 yards on 34 kicks.
In the District 3 playoffs, the absence of Deuce Finch will not provide much relief for Butler, as St. X. rolls big into the 2nd Round. Pleasure Ridge Park becomes the first Top 10 team to be eliminated as Manual moves on to face St. X. In the battle between #1 and #3, St. X. relies on their defense and a running back by committee offense to pull out a hard fought 17-14 win over Manual.
District 1 vs. District 3 finals prediction: Saint Xavier 38 – Graves County 13
DISTRICT 2 VS. DISTRICT 4 – This battle may prove to be interesting since each district has one Top 10 member, and a #4 seed already has a major win over the #1 seed in its own district.
In District 2, Greenwood has claimed the top spot, which may be bad news for them, since their opponent, Nelson County blasted them at Nelson County 53-19 in mid-season. #2 seed, Meade County, has worked themselves into the #10 position in the BGP Rankings with seven straight victories, one of which is a 31-0 victory over their first round competition, North Hardin.
Greenwood (5-5) upended Meade County 28-21 at home early, and thus won the top district spot when both finished with 3-1 records. For the Gators, this season has been one of either win close or lose big, as they have been outscored 228-140. Historically, they have been noted as mainly a rushing team, but have been fairly balanced this season with approximately 1500 yards on the ground and 1200 through the air.
The running load has been equally divided among Chris Page, Cory Henon, and Andrew Comer. Ty Downing to Chris Page and Ricky Adams has been the main air combo. The Gators have one of the top district linemen in Chase Lockhart (6-0, 280).
Meade County (7-3) narrowly dropped its first three outings to Fern Creek, John Hardin, and Greenwood, and then went undefeated for the rest of the season.. The Green Wave have outscored their opponents by a 254-137 margin. Known for its hard-nosed defense, Meade really clamped down allowing only 62 points in their final seven games, which included wins over highly ranked 5A teams, Owensboro and Woodford County.
Senior LB/DL Chris Roe is one of the state’s better defensive players. QB JL Cannady, WR Daniel Allen, and RBs Nick Stinnett and Alex Furnival supply most of the offensive fireworks.
North Hardin (3-7), as their record shows, could never find a way to overcome the graduation loss of their multi-year offensive leaders, RB Mark Terry and QB/WR Andre Autry. The historically potent Trojan attack has been outscored 237 – 157 this season. Although the attack has been balanced, it only generated around 100 yards passing and 100 yards rushing per game.
QB Joe French is the leading passer and RB Larod King is the leading ground gainer. Defensively, North Hardin is led by DL Cameron Tucker and DBs Joe Draper and Scott Schwartz.
Nelson County (4-6) has played a lot of teams tough early, only to run out of steam late in the game. Despite their losing record, they have outscored their opponents 284-270. The Cardinals offense is weighted heavily towards running the ball with a 2,577/398 run to pass yardage ratio.
Nelson loves to pound you with the three-headed rushing monster of Devin Boone (1,011 yards and 12 TDs), Jordan Keene (405 yards and 3 TDs), and De’Sean Patterson (376 yards and 3 TDs). The Cardinals can score big points. If the defense can get some stops, they are quite capable of springing an upset.
In the District 2 1st Round, Nelson County has the confidence from its first encounter and knows they can beat Greenwood. The Cardinals do it again, and the #4 seed sidelines the #1 seed. Although North Hardin lost to Meade 31-0 in the regular season, this repeat game is much closer, but still a win for the Green Wave.
In the 2nd Round, Meade County bursts Nelson County’s bubble and moves on to Round 3.
In District 4, Male enters competition as the top seed and #5 ranked team in the state. The Bulldogs already own a monstrous 61-0 win over #4 seed Bullitt Central. #2 seed Fern Creek was extended a little in their earlier game against #3 seed Southern before pulling away for a 35-21 victory.
Male (8-2) lost a lot of talent off of a super team last year, but still reloaded this season with enough fast and agile athletes to blow most competitors out of the water. Through the regular season they amassed a 10-game victory margin of 474-171. Nonetheless, a lack of size and strength on the lines and a much less efficient passing attack led to their two major losses to St. X. (42-6) and Manual (34-14) and revealed some vulnerability.
The Bulldogs are led by two super athletes. Junior RB Justin Green (reigning 100 meter state champion) through 9 games has accumulated 1,259 yards in 119 carries and 24 TDs. TE/LB/DE Dexter Heyman (6-4, 225) has been called by Coach Bob Redman one of the most heavily recruited players he has ever coached, and is a Mr. Football candidate.
Fern Creek (7-3) opened the season with six straight victories over light competition, but when then confronted with stronger teams (Ryle, Male, Ballard), the Tigers surrendered 152 points in lopsided consecutive losses. They then closed out the season with a very impressive 33-7 win over a good Eastern team. Overall, Fern Creek outscored their opponents 313 -249. Their balanced offense is led by QB Brian Hynes who passed for 996 yards and 13 TDs in the first 8 games, and RB Jimmy Welch who ran for 1002 and 9 TDs in the same 8 games.
The Tigers can also lay claim to one of the top two-way linemen in the state, Ryan Benzik (6-5, 315). The major area of concern for the Tigers is their questionable defensive ability.
Southern (4-6) has played everyone close with the two exceptions of Male and Eastern. They have been outscored by a 219-273 count for the season. Their offensive attack is mostly balanced with QB Randy Roberts throwing to Calvin Ferguson, while RBs Erik Pickett, Maurice Thomas, and Ferguson lead the land charge. LBs Trevor Knight and Jordan Blakemore are focal points for the defense.
Bullitt Central (3-7) started the season well with two victories, but then the roof caved in on both their offense and defense. They only reached the victory circle again in a season finale OT upset against North Oldham. The Cougars were drastically outscored in their season by a 153-320 margin. Offensively, Bullitt Central lacks any semblance of a passing game and relies almost exclusively on the run.
In the District 4 1st Round, Male will quickly dispose of Bullitt Central, while Fern Creek ends the season for Southern. Although Male hung a 55-33 loss on Fern Creek the first time they met, the Tigers give the Bulldogs a scare this time before finally surrendering in Round 2, 37-32.
District 2 vs. District 4 finals prediction: Male 27 – Meade County 21
DISTRICT 5 VS. DISTRICT 7 – Some of the best games could come out of this confrontation. With Trinity rated #2, Henry Clay rated #4 , and Ballard rated #7 in the BGP Class 6A Rankings, plus Lafayette and Eastern having strong teams, expect some major fireworks.
In District 5, two-time reigning champion Trinity claims the #1 seed and will face a Seneca squad which it defeated earlier 55-3. #2 seed Eastern hopes to evade #3 seed Ballard as it did in a narrow 23-22 win last month.
Trinity (8-2), with losses only Ohio’s #1 team, Cincinnati Saint Xavier (47-31), and Kentucky’s #1 team, Louisville Saint Xavier (24-14), is intent on claiming its sixth state championship out of the last seven years. For the season the Rocks have outscored their opponents by a massive 438-170.
Running what is probably the most sophisticated offense in Kentucky, they are equally adept at attacking teams on the ground and in the air. QB Will Stein has put up astounding numbers (179 completions in 259 attempts, 2447 yards, 32 TDs, and only 4 interceptions), with the speedy Dutton twins serving as the main receivers. Lightening-quick RB Tim Phillips has rushed 137 times for 1, 032 yards and 18 TDs. On defense the Rocks feature three legitimate D1 players in Sr. DL Sam Robey, Sr. LB Wes Weitlauf, and Jr. LB Jordan Whiting, who has already committed to Ohio State.
Eastern (7-3) fans are suffering some trauma over the injury status of super all-around QB Steve Ferguson, who went out early in the season-ending loss to Fern Creek. There has been no word as yet on how many games, if any, that he would miss. In the first nine games, Ferguson ran 148 times for 975 yards and 12 TDs, and also passed for 1,106 yards and an additional 12 TDs. The team as a whole has outscored its opponents by 298-209. Without Ferguson, the Eagles chances of advancing in the playoffs are poor at best.
Ballard (5-5) has played an extremely difficult schedule with their losses coming to St. X., Trinity, Manual, Male, and Eastern. They number Pleasure Ridge Park and Fern Creek among their victories. Running a well-balanced pass/run attack, the Bruins have outscored their opposition by 278 to 257. QB TJ Pryor has some of the same athletic qualities as Ferguson of Eastern with his pass/run ability. Ballard also has two highly gifted RBs in Sir Weakley and Paul Perkins.
Seneca (3-7) has competed strongly, but not very successfully in most of their contests this season. They have been outscored in their 10 game schedule 335-218. The Red Hawks rely on a balanced offense. QB DaMarcus Smith has thrown for 1371 yards and 12 TDs, with WR Broderick Green being the major benefactor (38receptions, 769 yards, 9TDs). At running back, Seneca has one of the best kept secrets in the state. Workhorse Anthony Knott has followed up
last season’s 1,388 yard effort with an even better 1,433 result this year.
In the District 5 1st Round, Seneca once again proves no match for mighty Trinity. In the other contest, however, with or without the presence of Eastern star QB Steve Ferguson, Ballard reverses its earlier loss to the Eagles. In the 2nd Round, Ballard, which had lost previously to Trinity 48-23, makes a much better showing but still falls short by 14 points to the Rocks.
In District 7, powerful Henry Clay holds the #1 seed and will meet #4 seed Tates Creek. The Blue Devils already own an explosive 45-0 victory over the Commodores. #2 seed Lafayette will tackle dangerous #3 Paul Dunbar, from whom they barely escaped previously by a narrow 16-14 final score.
Henry Clay (8-1) was only able to schedule 9 games this season, and suffered its only loss to LaSalle, a strong Ohio school. The Blue Devils are a veritable offensive machine, having outscored the opposition 359 to 184. Leading the way is QB Ryan Phillipi who can both pass (122 completions in 192 attempts, 1796 yards, 18 TDs, 1 interception) and run (136 carries for 805 yards and 11 TDs). Ryan’s chief pass receiver is heavily D1 recruited Aaron Boyd (6-5, 200) who has snared 49 passes for 1037 yards and 14 TDs. Super quick and strong RB Dontey Gay (5-10, 190) complements the rushing game with team high totals of 145 carries for 1,264 yards and 14 TDs.
Linemen Samuel Simpson (6-5, 250), Nigel Wells (6-3, 310), and Michael Hamm (6-1, 240) provide a strong push up front for Henry Clay.
Lafayette (8-2) has a recent history of great regular season performances followed by being the victim of an early playoff upset. The Generals were crushed at home by Trinity 56-6 in their last game. What effect with this have on the team in the playoffs? As a team, they outscored their opponents 249-180. QB Logan Bunch’s arm is the main offensive weapon for Lafayette as he has passed for 1,708 yards and 10 TDs. WR Tommy Gifford corralled 44 of these passes for 716 yards and 4 TDs. The Generals also have possibly the best punter/kicker in Kentucky in Jake Stephens.
Paul Dunbar (3-7), despite their poor record, has shown with their win over Madison Central and their narrow loss to Lafayette, that they should not be taken for granted. The Bulldogs have been outscored 277 to 194. With almost a 4 to 1 ratio of running yardage to passing yardage, Lafayette is mainly one dimensional. The leading ball carriers are QB Marquis Clay (591 yds.) and Jerrell Greene (577 yds.)
Tates Creek (2-8) has been outscored 340-196. The Commodores have suffered greatly on defense, and have been mainly a solely running team. Their leading rusher is 3-year starter Ty Sparks, who came into this season with more than 3,000 yards.
In District 7 Round 1, Henry Clay will be able to rest its starters early against Tates Creek, and Lafayette will overcome its playoff jinx by defeating Paul Dunbar. In Round 2, Henry Clay will ease by Lafayette 37 – 24.
District 5 vs. District 7 finals prediction: Trinity 42 – Henry Clay 34
DISTRICT 6 VS. DISTRICT 8 – This may well prove to be the most balanced battle of all. Scott County and Boone County are the sole teams with BGP Top 10 Rankings, coming in at #6 and #8 respectively.
In District 6, Boone County has won the #1 seed, and with it they have won the right to meet #4 Campbell County, whom they defeated 28-0 in an early season contest. #2 seed, Ryle will have to confront #3 Simon Kenton, who already owns one 18-10 upset verdict over the Raiders.
Boone County (7-3) has outscored their opposition by 308 – 192. The Rebels still prefer to pound the ball at you with a big back behind a powerful offensive line, but unlike past years, they have opened the playbook a little to allow some effective complimentary passes. This slight addition has made them much more dangerous. Hard running RB Cory Farris has smashed for 2,250 yards on 288 carries and 22 TDs. QB Shawn Boggle handles the passing chores (79 for 151, 1193 yards, 9TDs) while Mercier Doucette provides the main receiving hands (38 receptions for 668 yards and 7 TDs). Did you ever think you would hear the words “Boone” and “pass” in the same sentence?
Ryle (6-4) has outscored their season opponents 302-207. The Raiders, with their 3:1 rush to pass yardage ratio, could actually be classified as a less balanced team than Boone County. Adam Schmitz serves as their workhorse RB, achieving 1250 yards on 200 carries for 18 TDs. The Ryle team’s performance is a bit of an enigma. They travel to Fern Creek and defeat a previously undefeated squad by a massive 55-10 score. Then two weeks later they get outscored 35-0 in the 2nd half to lose 45-10 against a 6-4 Dixie Heights team. You just can’t be sure from week to week which team is going to show up.
Simon Kenton (6-4) was outscored 251-216 in the regular season. Their offensive attack is somewhat balanced between run and pass. RBs TJ Dawalt (428 yds., 5 TDs) and Miles Simpson (345 yds., 6 TDs) lead the Pioneer ground assault. For passing, it’s usually QB Patrick Bustle (1,191 yds., 12 TDs) throwing to WR Nathan Ponzer (591 yds., 8 TDs). Much like Ryle, based on the wins and losses, you can never be sure which Simon Kenton team will be playing in the next game.
Campbell County (6-4) outscored their opponents 228 to 189. The Camels run a balanced pass/run offense, but really rely a lot on their defense to control the game. The best player for Campbell is LB Brian Sauerback, a four-year starter who also plays OG on offense. QB Nathan Kidwell leads the passing attack, while RB Grant Rose amasses the most ground yardage for the Camels.
In District 6 Round 1, the potential for upsets is there, but I just don’t see that happening. Both Boone and Ryle will escape to Round 2. The first meeting between these rivals resulted in an exciting 30-24 Boone County victory in overtime. This second contest, however, will result in a wider victory margin, and the Rebels will move on to the 3rd Round.
In District 8, Scott County has secured the #1 seed and will begin their playoff run against a dangerous #4 seed Shelby County. When these same two teams met in mid-season at Shelby County, the Cardinals were greatly extended before walking away with a 40-34 win over the pass-happy Rockets. Madison Central won the #2 seed and must now face a George Rogers Clark team whom they defeated earlier 45-26.
Scott County (9-1) seems to have finally gotten their program to the stage where they no longer rebuild but rather reload. For the past several years they have become a constant figure in the Top 10. This Cardinals team has outscored its opposition 298 to 178, and experienced their only loss to 4A power Lexington Catholic. With an attack based heavily on the running game, Scott County plays close to the vest and relies heavily on its defense for its success. QB Brandon Lawson commands the offense and RBs Logan Travis and Jose Smith provide the major ground propulsion. This is a sound team.
Madison Central (6-4) has outscored its opponents 254-213. The Indians got off to a flying start with 5 straight victories to open the season, but then hit the meat of their schedule and dropped four of their final five games. That’s really not the way you like to go into the playoffs. Not having very large linemen, the Indians rely on a balanced pass/run attack which maximizes the efficiency of their small, but quick athletes. Ricky Rhodes leads the RBs with 595 yards and 10 TDs. QB Chaz Hope has passed for 956 yards and 8 TDs. On defense, because of their lack of size, the Indians have proven to be extremely vulnerable to teams with strong power rushing ability.
George Rogers Clark (3-7) had high expectations, but were somewhat crushed when they lost the first four games by a grand total of 12 points. The losing streak extended for two more games before the Cardinals tasted their first victory in a big 35-18 upset of Shelby County. After playing Scott County close in another loss, GRC closed with two more wins, and thus enter the playoffs on a positive note. Despite their 3-7 record, the Cardinals scored exactly the same amount of points are the opposition, 292. RBs Travis Conner (804 yds.) and Ryan Williams (826 yds.) lead the run-orientated offense. QB Dougie Mason has provided some offensive diversity by throwing for 1,024 yards.
Shelby County (6-4) placed its destiny in the hands of super QB Alex Matthews (2,493 yards and 27 TDs in 8 games) and virtually abandoned any semblance of offensive balance. With a team short on running back skills and a woeful, defense the Rockets had little choice but to rely on outscoring the opposition through the air. This philosophy produced many exciting games, chief of which was a losing 57-54 shootout loss to powerful Manual. Early in the eighth game against Madison Central, Matthews went down with what was diagnosed as a separated shoulder, and it appeared that he was lost for the remainder of the year. However, he came back for the final game and passed for 423 yards to produce a 40-18 victory over Oldham County. With Matthews back, anything is possible for the Rockets.
In District 8 Round 1, in a major offensive shootout Scott County edges Shelby County, while Madison Central escapes a near upset at the hands of George Rogers Clark. In Round 2, Scott County proves to be too much for the Indians of Madison Central.
District 6 vs. District 8 finals prediction: Boone County 28 – Scott County 14
Semifinal Predictions
Saint Xavier 35 – Male 23
Trinity 45 – Boone County 21
Championship
Saint Xavier 28 – Trinity 24