The Scribe
11-11-2008, 02:05 AM
Bluegrasspreps.com Class 6A Football Playoff Preview
By Oxnard
In 2008, the playoffs have returned to the cross-district matchup format for the initial round, but the districts have once again been shuffled among the four regions. With this year’s alignment, the overwhelming favorites, Saint Xavier and Trinity, barring an upset, must meet in a fourth round semi-final game rather than the state finals.
Outside of St. X. and Trinity, I can never remember a year when this top class has been so evenly matched. There are around 15-20 teams which are quite capable of beating any of the others on any given day, as this has occurred so often during the regular season. For those teams fortunate enough to be in the Eastern Regions (3 & 4), they have avoided the X/T gauntlet, leaving the path to the State Finals wide open.
Saint Xavier is the only undefeated team in the 6A playoffs, holding regular season victories over major contenders Trinity, Manual, Ballard, and Pleasure Ridge Park.
Now it is time to take a look at the road to the championship. Please note that all statistics mentioned in this preview include only those games reported to KHSAA unless otherwise noted.
Region 1 (District 5 vs. District 1)
On paper these confrontations appear to be somewhat one-sided with Louisville District 5 being the residence of three BGP Top 10 teams (Trinity, Eastern, and Ballard) plus a strong Seneca team, while WKY District 1 has no Top 10 teams, although at this point Daviess County has only one loss.
From District 5 the #1 seed 2007 State Champion, Trinity (9-1), enters the playoffs with another powerful team. The Rocks only stumble this season was to #1 St. X. by a 30-6 count.
Coach Bob Beatty’s squad is led offensively by the passing of senior QB Cameron Smythe who has thrown for 1,957 yards and 23 TD’s, while completing 149 out of 199 attempts. Cameron is a superb scrambler, and must be respected for his running skills. His favorite targets are Scott Radcliff and William Leach, with 42 and 28 receptions respectively.
Returning All-State RB, Tim Phillips, leads the ground attack with 716 yards on 115 carries. Defensively, the Rocks have only allowed 99 points, and are led by staunch LB’s Jordan Whiting, Brock Mussina, and Phil McCauley.
The #2 seed behind Trinity is Eastern (9-1). The Eagles sole loss was a 49-0 whitewashing by Trinity. This is an extremely well balanced squad with both the pass and run.
QB Brent Carneal has thrown for 1357 yards and 12 TD’s, while five different running backs have amassed between 228-459 yards. Eastern’s best athlete is sophomore Jon Davis, who leads the team in rushing and pass receiving on offense, and is the top tackler as a LB on defense. Through nine games, the Eagles have outscored their opponents 284-183.
The #3 seed is Ballard (5-5) whose record is very deceiving. The Bruins have played a murderous schedule and own victories over strong boys Pleasure Ridge Park, Manual, Male, and Seneca. Their losses have come at the hands of St. X., Trinity, Manual, Eastern, and Fern Creek.
Offensively, Coach Jackson’s Bruins operate out of a no-huddle, hurry-up, spread offense, which is fairly pass/run balanced. Their main weapons are speedy RB’s Javon Kirksey and Paul Perkins. The Bruins’ defensive personnel are extremely athletic and fast, and come at you from all angles.
The #4 seed from District 5 is Seneca (4-5), who like Ballard is a much better team than its record shows. The Redhawks have a win over Fern Creek, and narrow losses to Manual, Ballard, Pleasure Ridge Park, and Eastern. Seneca runs an aerial circus led by sophomore QB Damarcus Smith, who through the first eight games has totaled 2,244 yards and 25 TD’s. Smith’s main targets are Aaron Nance, Devin Mitchell, and Jordan Jacobs, with 27, 27, and 21 receptions respectively. Seneca averages 36 points on offense while giving up 30 on defense.
From District 5, Daviess County (9-1) has claimed the #1 seed. The Panthers are led by dynamic QB Cole Lanham, who has passed for 1,435 yards and run for 841 yards while accumulating 21 total touchdowns. Joey Kramer, Taylor Fulkerson and Chad McCain serve as the leading pass receivers. RB Dylan Millay is the second leading ground gainer behind Lanham with 662 yards on 104 carries.
Defensively, Daviess relies heavily on a strong LB corps led by Jordan Stoermer with 88 tackles. The Panthers have outscored their opponents by 278-148 through 10 games. Their signature win has been a 36-33 OT decision over Henderson County.
The #2 seed in WKY is Henderson County (7-3). The Colonels rely a lot on their potent rushing attack to overcome their opposition, led by Almondo Theus with 1161 yards on 154 carries in eight games. QB, Jeremiah Coursey has thrown for 512 yards with a 45% completion average. Henderson County has outscore their opponents 281-186, and seem to be peaking for the playoffs with last week’s 28-13 victory over powerful 5A Bowling Green.
Madisonville-North Hopkins will be the #3 seed with a 7-3 record. QB Matt Levin has provided a potent passing attack completing 171 out of 272 passes for 1,814 yards and 10 touchdowns. Ryan Robinson is the leading receiver with 40 catches for 474 yards, but Isiah White may be the most dangerous with 355 yards on only 23 receptions. Robinson is also the leading rusher with 647 yards on 121 carries. Madisonville has outscored the opposition 210-144 and defeated 5A Covington Catholic away by 17-14 two weeks ago.
The #4 seed in District 1 goes to Graves County (5-5). After starting strong with four straight victories, the Eagles have fallen on hard times losing five out of their final six games. Graves County has been outscored 248-124 this season. No team statistics are available.
In the Region 1 first round games, the lack of facing strong opposition during the regular season schedule will doom all four District 1 teams to defeat. Trinity will pile up enough points in the first half against Graves County to allow for a running clock in the second half.
Eastern will have some difficulty with Madisonville’s passing attack early, but will make halftime adjustments to pull away for a two touchdown victory.
Ballard’s strong front seven will throttle Henderson County’s ground game to escape with a tight low scoring victory.
Seneca QB Demarcus Smith will outduel Daviess County QB Cole Lanham in a brilliant passing battle, which results in a high scoring victory for the Redhawks.
In the second round Trinity will once again have too much on both sides of the ball for Ballard. Both Eastern and Seneca have strong offenses, but Eastern has the better defense, and the Eagles walk away with another narrow victry.
Trinity defeated Eastern 49-0 during the regular season, but the game was much tighter than the score indicated. The Eagles were able to move the ball on the Rocks, but made too many mistakes when they neared the endzone. Trinity, however, has improved a lot since the first meeting, which is further bad news for Eastern.
Region 1 Final Prediction: Trinity 52 – Eastern 7
Region 2 (District 3 vs. District 2)
Much like the Region 1 confrontations, one District appears to be loaded with much stronger teams than the other. Within District 3, BGP #1 St. X. and #3 Manual reside, plus a very strong Pleasure Ridge Park team. On the other side, no team from District 2 has received much statewide recognition.
District 3 #1 seed Saint Xavier is Kentucky’s only undefeated 6A team with a 9-0 record. Seeking to reach the finals for the fourth time in the past five years, the Tigers have averaged an astounding victory margin of 52-4 through the regular season. St. X. has shown a much more diverse attack this season with offensive sets varying from the wishbone to 5-wide shotgun. On the ground, returning All-State RB Deuce Finch leads the Tigers with a 10-yard per carry average. QB Matt Brutscher has completed 60% of his passes with his main targets being TE Brian Baucher and WR Steven Goodwin. Leading the way defensively are DE Trevor Foy, who has committed to Purdue, and SS DJ Hall.
The #2 seed is Manual (8-2), who come into the playoffs with victories over Central, Ballard, Seneca, Pleasure Ridge Park and Male. The Crimsons losses were a second game with Ballard and a lop-sided 57-0 against St. X. Having outscored their opponents by only 296-271, Manual has shown a great ability to overcome adversity and has won many games late. The offense is very balanced between pass and run, with QB Joey Harness, RB DJ Hawk, and RB James Clay leading the way.
The #3 seed is Pleasure Ridge Park at 4-4. The Panthers had two of their games cancelled due to a storm as well as a player’s death. 75% of the time they rely on the ground game for their yardage, using six different backs, led by Fuss Thompson who has 392 yards on 61 attempts in seven games. Keonte Reynolds leads an experienced defense in tackles. PRP has wins over a strong 5A Doss team and Seneca, and only lost to Ballard 7-6.
Occupying the final 4-seed is Butler (2-8), who was winless against a brutal schedule until the final two games when they defeated Holy Cross and Southern. Their losses included games against Eastern (31-19), Trinity (65-12), PRP (19-0), St. X. (63-0), Male (42-22), and Manual (40-21). The Bears depend mainly on the run and are led by Deangelo Thomas who has 882 yards on 134 attempts.
The top seed in District 2 goes to Greenwood (6-4), who enters the playoffs with two straight defeats at the hands of Central Hardin (14-7) and Scott County (48-20). The Gators surprised many by winning the district title after being picked in preseason to battle Central Hardin for last place. They run a very well balanced attack with 1,300 yards on the ground and 1,600 yards through the air. QB Logan Pemberton, RB Hunter Thompson, RB Dee Anderson, and WR Ricky Adams are the main offensive contributors. On the defensive side of the ball, LB Sam Wilson has an amazing 96 solo and 38 assisted tackles through only nine games.
The #2 seed for District 2 is Meade County (5-5). The Green Wave lost 20 seniors off of last season’s final 4 team. They have only scored 127 points, while surrendering 232, but they do enter the playoffs with a 21-0 victory last week over a respected 5A Woodford County. Meade was defeated 30-6 by Greenwood during the regular season. No team stats were available.
North Hardin (4-6) fell to the #3 seed after being the preseason favorite to win the district. The Trojans lost two close games which cost them dearly, Greenwood (24-20) and Meade County (10-7). They also dropped a 36-10 decision to PRP in their last game.
They depend on the air game for 65% of their offense, as QB Larod King has 115 completions in 216 attempts for 1352 yards. Josh Stone and Cyshawn Jones are the leading receivers. Ashton Little, Austin berry, and Marcell Haynes are the leading tacklers.
Nelson County (4-6) claimed the #4 seed in a disappointing season after opening with a 24-18 victory over Bardstown. Their losses included games to Greenwood (35-9), Meade County (42-21), and North Hardin (33-27). The Cardinals did claim a 31-28 victory over Butler. The offense is very unbalanced with 2494 yards on the ground and 477 through the air. The main rusher is RB Quentin Brooks with 1122 yards on 191 attempts, followed by QB Jordan King with 526 yards on 120 attempts. The defense has given up over 31 points per game.
In the Region 2 first round games, as noted above, District 3 appears to be dominant in all games but one. Saint Xavier and Manual should easily vanquish Nelson County and North Hardin, while Pleasure Ridge Park hands Meade County a two touchdown defeat. Greenwood avoids giving District 3 a sweep by scoring late to edge a surprisingly competitive Butler team.
In the second round, St. X. repeats its regular season spanking of PRP, and Manual, behind its speedy offense, ends Greenwood’s hopes of hosting the Regional Final.
In their regular season game, Manual fell behind early to St. X,. and things seemed to fall apart after that for the Crimsons, as they committed numerous turnovers on their way to a 57-0 loss to the Tigers. Manual holds on to the ball much better this game, and their offense provides the X-men a strong test, but the Tigers just have too much ammunition on both sides of the ball.
Region 2 Final Prediction: Saint Xavier 41 – Manual 13
Region 3 (District 6 vs. District 7)
This Region should be highly competitive and provide some very interesting games. With both St. X. and Trinity on the other side of the bracket, each team feels they have a great opportunity to get to the State Final.
The District 6 #1 seed is Boone County (7-3). The Rebels went undefeated through their district, losing only to Scott County 23-14 in the season opener, and to Henry Clay 14-7 and Madison Central 22-16 in their final two games. Boone pounded their opponents on the ground with a smash attack to accumulate 2774 yards while surrendering only 986 rushing yards. Charles Quainoo was the main hammer with 1887 yards on 282 carries for 21 touchdowns. Jordan Oppenheimer provided the chief assistance with 439 yards on 98 carries. A strong running attack and a strong run defense are the trademarks of the Rebels.
The #2 seed is a surprising Conner (6-4) team, who finished only 1-9 in 2007 and was not expected to do much better this season. They defeated Simon Kenton (20-19) and Ryle (17-14), and were barely edged by Boone County (28-21). For the season, Conner outscored their opponents 312-193. They rely heavily on a strong passing attack to account for 65% of their total offensive yardage. QB Nick West does it all for Conner, throwing for 2,015 yards and rushing for an additional 476. William Engleman is the leading receiver with 675 yards and seven touchdowns. Tyler Geiman is the leading tackler with 73 solos and 28 assists.
Ryle (5-5) claims the #3 seed. The Raiders best showings were probably in two losses. They held 5A power Highlands to their lowest margin in a 26-6 loss, and also dropped a narrow 38-37 decision to a strong Fern Creek team. Ryle averaged 26 points per game and their yardage was evenly accumulated between pass and run. QB Conner Hempel threw for 1362 yards and 17 touchdowns, and WR Cody Ferguson hauled in 39 passes for 428 yards and six touchdowns. RB’s Keifer Eubank and Travis Elliot ran for 760 and 519 yards respectively.
Simon Kenton (6-4) received the #4 seed in District 6 with a 15-7 win over Campbell County. Within the district they lost to Conner (20-19), Boone County (42-7) and Ryle (26-18). They rely heavily on a ground assault with 2,645 yards, compared to only 641 yards passing. RB Miles Simpson powered his way for 1,584 yards on 164 attempts to score 24 touchdowns. Matt Neal leads the team on defense with 38 solo tackles and 54 assists.
Lafayette (7-3) emerged with the #1 seed in District 7. The Generals defeated Henry Clay (24-14) and Tates Creek (12-7), but suffered a humiliating loss against Trinity (65-0) in the final regular season game. Defense was the key to victory for Lafayette through the first nine games, as they only yielded 9 points per game average. The Generals were very pedestrian on offense, gaining only 1,350 rushing and 870 yards passing for the entire season. RB Eric Shaw led the team in rushing with 749 yards on 112 carries.
After a horrific 0-4 start, Henry Clay finished with five straight victories to get the #2 seed. The Blue Devils defeated Tates Creek (32-6), and claimed a 14-7 decision over Boone County in the final regular season game. This victory over Boone County set off a 6A alarm throughout the state, making everyone aware that Henry Clay had finally ironed out the wrinkles and was ready for title-contending business as usual. Returning All-State center Sam Simpson anchors the OL. RB Tyler Hooker provides the main ground yardage, while QB Cole Mielcarek passes to WR Jason Rider for the air yardage. LB Mike Federspiel leads the defense.
The #3 seed is Tates Creek (2-8), whose only district win was Paul Dunbar (28-27). They also have losses to George Rogers Clark (25-7) and Scott County (34-20). Tates Creek has been outscored by a whopping 296 to 147, while losing the rushing battle 1713 to 799 in yardage. Offensively they run a balanced pass/run attack. RB Rozell James is the leading rusher with 400 yards, while QB Chris Kemlin has passed for 1,079 yards and 12 touchdowns to six different receivers.
Paul Dunbar (1-9) claims the #4 seed. This team was expected to vie for Top 10 honors in 6A early last summer, but injures, desertions, and suspensions severely crippled this potential. Their only victory was over 5A Southwestern (29-27). Outside of their district they suffered major defeats to Scott County (45-7) and Trinity (56-0). For the season Dunbar has been outscored 422-99. No stats are available.
In the first round games the higher seeded teams should win out. Lafayette’s strong defense will bend a lot trying to stop Simon Kenton’s strong rushes by Miles Simpson, but will hold on for a hard-fought 10-7 win. Henry Clay has too many athletes for Ryle, as the Blue Devils win easily. Connor and Boone County easily dispose of Tates Creek and Paul Dunbar with runaway wins.
This second round gets interesting as Lafayette’s usually reliable defense is unable to stop Nick West on either the ground or the air, and Conner moves on to the final. Henry Clay shows that its regular season victory is no fluke by again beating Boone County, this time by a more comfortable 20-7 score.
As the two #2 seeds enter the final, it looks to be a coin toss as to who walks out with the win. I just have a feeling that one team gets a late fumble recovery to seal a tight victory.
Region 3 Final Prediction: Henry Clay 16 – Conner 14
Region 4 (District 4 vs. District 8)
As was the case with Region 3, some very interesting contests will be played in Region 4, as the teams vie for a wide open slot in the State Final.
In District 4, Male (6-4), although a shadow of their normal teams, still claims the #1 seed. The Bulldogs outscored their opposition by 309-217, with most of their games being high scoring affairs. Unlike past years, Male did not have a skilled passing QB, so they reverted to using their speed on the ground.
Super fast Justin Green, who committed to Ohio State, missed three games because of injury, but still rumbled for 505 yards. RB’s Stewart Brown and Pookie Story provided able assistance with 511 and 420 yards respectively. QB Dexter Britt has shown that the pass is not totally gone by throwing for 1042 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Male is not blessed with large defensive linemen, but they still attack with their 10 men in the box pressing defense. The Bulldogs have wins over 5A Christian County (49-14), Bullitt Central (56-21), and Fern Creek (31-14), but have dropped decisions to Ballard (30-13), Eastern (21-14), and Manual (24-41). Luckily for Male the 6A teams who defeated them are all in the opposite bracket.
Fern Creek (6-3) is the #2 seed. They hold victories over Bullitt Central (53-26), 5A Doss (26-25) Ballard (31-21), and Southern (35-30). Losses have come at the hands of Male (31-14), Seneca (38-15), and Eastern (21-20). Despite the presence of QB Bryan Hynes who has thrown for 1,243 yards and 12 touchdowns in six games, the Tigers surprisingly balance their offense on the ground. RB Jimmie Welch leads with 633 yards on 105 carries, followed by Andre Brown with 306 yards on 41 carries. QB Hynes will also pull down the ball, and has run effectively for 198 yards on 33 carries.
Bullitt Central surprised everyone by finishing 8-2 to claim the #3 seed. The Cougars hold a 40-22 victory over Southern, but were humbled mightily by the speed of Male (56-21) and Fern Creek (53-26). Outside of Southern, all of their wins have come against lower class competition. Bullitt Central favors the run over the pass by a 2:1 margin, amassing 2,431 rushing and 1,075 passing yards in ten games.
They have an excellent RB in Jeremy Bennett, who has carried for 1,272 yards on 196 attempts for 13 touchdowns. QB Damon Wibbles has thrown for 1,038 yards and 17 touchdowns with TJ Flener and Jesse Vittitoe being his favorite receivers. The defense is led in tackles by Cory Brown and Jackie Hornback.
In District 8, Scott County (8-2) has won the #1 seed. The Cardinals have wins over Madison Central (24-21), George Rogers Clark (35-7), Shelby County (40-9), Boone County (23-14) and Greenwood (48-20). The Cardinals losses were to 4A Lexington Catholic (16-10) and 5A Oldham County (24-17). While outscoring their opponents 329-158, they have rushed for 2,780 yards and thrown for only 630 yards.
RB Jose Smith carries most of the ground attack, gaining 1,347 yards on 195 attempts for 15 touchdowns. Cody Skimmerhorn is the leading tackler on defense.
Madison Central (8-2) gets the #2 seed. The Indians hold victories over George Rogers Clark (49-35), Paul Dunbar (57-6), Shelby County (28-6), and Boone County (22-16). Besides Scott County, the only other team to defeat them was 5A power Highlands (46-0). Through eight games the Indians rushed for 1,960 yards and passed for only 623 yards. This team relies heavily on the superior speed of its backs. Isaiah Kavanaugh averages 10 yards/carry, Shane King averages 9 yards/carry, and Keshawn Simpson averages 7 yards/carry.
George Rogers Clark (6-4) is the District 8 #3 seed. In nine games they have rushed for 2,101 yards and passed for an additional 813 yards. RB Ryan Williams has cruised for 1, 757 yards on 184 attempts while scoring 20 touchdowns. On defense the leading tacklers are Robbie Hisle with 107 and Chas Campbell with 83, while DB Darius Skinner has corralled 6 interceptions.
Shelby County (1-9) is the #4 seed with their only victory coming against 5A South Oldham (62-7). Even with the Rockets big margin in their only victory, they have been outscored 282-204. Offensively, 70% of their plays are pass attempts. QB Branden Cresap has 826 yards passing in only three games , while QB Matthew Page (moved from WR after injury to Cresap) has 673 yards in eight games.
In the first round games for Region 4, Male’s offensive speed and defensive pressure will wilt Shelby County to a 5 TD defeat. Fern Creek will bedazzle George Rogers Clark with the passing of Hynes and the rushing speed of Welch and Brown for a 38-14 victory. Bullitt Central has shown in its two losses that it has a major problem with containing fast running attacks, which is sadly what the Cougars will see too often from Madison Central. The Indians will roll by 24 points. Scott County just has too much of everything for Southern, and can name the score.
In the second round, the games become much tighter. When Male and Madison Central face each other, they may think they are looking in a mirror, considering the speed on which they both depend. This will soon resemble a track meet as the score mounts. Madison Central has the ball last and scores in the last moment for the win.
Scott County will control the game clock with its strong rushing attack against Fern Creek, denying Hynes much time for smoothing out the Tigers strong passing game. Scott County moves on with a 28-17 win over Fern Creek.
Scott County and Madison Central face each other for the second time this season, with the Cardinals having emerged victorious 24-21 in the first encounter. It’s tougher beating a good team the second time around.
Region 4 Final Prediction: Madison Central 28 – Scott County 20
Sleeper Team: Conner - Although I show them being eliminated by Henry Clay in the Region 3 Final, I think that Conner has an outside chance of going all the way to the State Final. They just seem to be peaking at the right time; the bracketing keeps them away from the teams to whom they would be most vulnerable; and they have a pass/run star in Nick West who can carry them past adversity.
WKY State Semi-Final Prediction: Saint Xavier 21 – Trinity 14
EKY State Semi-Final Prediction: Henry Clay 23 – Madison Central 21
State Title Prediction: Saint Xavier 38 – Henry Clay 7
By Oxnard
In 2008, the playoffs have returned to the cross-district matchup format for the initial round, but the districts have once again been shuffled among the four regions. With this year’s alignment, the overwhelming favorites, Saint Xavier and Trinity, barring an upset, must meet in a fourth round semi-final game rather than the state finals.
Outside of St. X. and Trinity, I can never remember a year when this top class has been so evenly matched. There are around 15-20 teams which are quite capable of beating any of the others on any given day, as this has occurred so often during the regular season. For those teams fortunate enough to be in the Eastern Regions (3 & 4), they have avoided the X/T gauntlet, leaving the path to the State Finals wide open.
Saint Xavier is the only undefeated team in the 6A playoffs, holding regular season victories over major contenders Trinity, Manual, Ballard, and Pleasure Ridge Park.
Now it is time to take a look at the road to the championship. Please note that all statistics mentioned in this preview include only those games reported to KHSAA unless otherwise noted.
Region 1 (District 5 vs. District 1)
On paper these confrontations appear to be somewhat one-sided with Louisville District 5 being the residence of three BGP Top 10 teams (Trinity, Eastern, and Ballard) plus a strong Seneca team, while WKY District 1 has no Top 10 teams, although at this point Daviess County has only one loss.
From District 5 the #1 seed 2007 State Champion, Trinity (9-1), enters the playoffs with another powerful team. The Rocks only stumble this season was to #1 St. X. by a 30-6 count.
Coach Bob Beatty’s squad is led offensively by the passing of senior QB Cameron Smythe who has thrown for 1,957 yards and 23 TD’s, while completing 149 out of 199 attempts. Cameron is a superb scrambler, and must be respected for his running skills. His favorite targets are Scott Radcliff and William Leach, with 42 and 28 receptions respectively.
Returning All-State RB, Tim Phillips, leads the ground attack with 716 yards on 115 carries. Defensively, the Rocks have only allowed 99 points, and are led by staunch LB’s Jordan Whiting, Brock Mussina, and Phil McCauley.
The #2 seed behind Trinity is Eastern (9-1). The Eagles sole loss was a 49-0 whitewashing by Trinity. This is an extremely well balanced squad with both the pass and run.
QB Brent Carneal has thrown for 1357 yards and 12 TD’s, while five different running backs have amassed between 228-459 yards. Eastern’s best athlete is sophomore Jon Davis, who leads the team in rushing and pass receiving on offense, and is the top tackler as a LB on defense. Through nine games, the Eagles have outscored their opponents 284-183.
The #3 seed is Ballard (5-5) whose record is very deceiving. The Bruins have played a murderous schedule and own victories over strong boys Pleasure Ridge Park, Manual, Male, and Seneca. Their losses have come at the hands of St. X., Trinity, Manual, Eastern, and Fern Creek.
Offensively, Coach Jackson’s Bruins operate out of a no-huddle, hurry-up, spread offense, which is fairly pass/run balanced. Their main weapons are speedy RB’s Javon Kirksey and Paul Perkins. The Bruins’ defensive personnel are extremely athletic and fast, and come at you from all angles.
The #4 seed from District 5 is Seneca (4-5), who like Ballard is a much better team than its record shows. The Redhawks have a win over Fern Creek, and narrow losses to Manual, Ballard, Pleasure Ridge Park, and Eastern. Seneca runs an aerial circus led by sophomore QB Damarcus Smith, who through the first eight games has totaled 2,244 yards and 25 TD’s. Smith’s main targets are Aaron Nance, Devin Mitchell, and Jordan Jacobs, with 27, 27, and 21 receptions respectively. Seneca averages 36 points on offense while giving up 30 on defense.
From District 5, Daviess County (9-1) has claimed the #1 seed. The Panthers are led by dynamic QB Cole Lanham, who has passed for 1,435 yards and run for 841 yards while accumulating 21 total touchdowns. Joey Kramer, Taylor Fulkerson and Chad McCain serve as the leading pass receivers. RB Dylan Millay is the second leading ground gainer behind Lanham with 662 yards on 104 carries.
Defensively, Daviess relies heavily on a strong LB corps led by Jordan Stoermer with 88 tackles. The Panthers have outscored their opponents by 278-148 through 10 games. Their signature win has been a 36-33 OT decision over Henderson County.
The #2 seed in WKY is Henderson County (7-3). The Colonels rely a lot on their potent rushing attack to overcome their opposition, led by Almondo Theus with 1161 yards on 154 carries in eight games. QB, Jeremiah Coursey has thrown for 512 yards with a 45% completion average. Henderson County has outscore their opponents 281-186, and seem to be peaking for the playoffs with last week’s 28-13 victory over powerful 5A Bowling Green.
Madisonville-North Hopkins will be the #3 seed with a 7-3 record. QB Matt Levin has provided a potent passing attack completing 171 out of 272 passes for 1,814 yards and 10 touchdowns. Ryan Robinson is the leading receiver with 40 catches for 474 yards, but Isiah White may be the most dangerous with 355 yards on only 23 receptions. Robinson is also the leading rusher with 647 yards on 121 carries. Madisonville has outscored the opposition 210-144 and defeated 5A Covington Catholic away by 17-14 two weeks ago.
The #4 seed in District 1 goes to Graves County (5-5). After starting strong with four straight victories, the Eagles have fallen on hard times losing five out of their final six games. Graves County has been outscored 248-124 this season. No team statistics are available.
In the Region 1 first round games, the lack of facing strong opposition during the regular season schedule will doom all four District 1 teams to defeat. Trinity will pile up enough points in the first half against Graves County to allow for a running clock in the second half.
Eastern will have some difficulty with Madisonville’s passing attack early, but will make halftime adjustments to pull away for a two touchdown victory.
Ballard’s strong front seven will throttle Henderson County’s ground game to escape with a tight low scoring victory.
Seneca QB Demarcus Smith will outduel Daviess County QB Cole Lanham in a brilliant passing battle, which results in a high scoring victory for the Redhawks.
In the second round Trinity will once again have too much on both sides of the ball for Ballard. Both Eastern and Seneca have strong offenses, but Eastern has the better defense, and the Eagles walk away with another narrow victry.
Trinity defeated Eastern 49-0 during the regular season, but the game was much tighter than the score indicated. The Eagles were able to move the ball on the Rocks, but made too many mistakes when they neared the endzone. Trinity, however, has improved a lot since the first meeting, which is further bad news for Eastern.
Region 1 Final Prediction: Trinity 52 – Eastern 7
Region 2 (District 3 vs. District 2)
Much like the Region 1 confrontations, one District appears to be loaded with much stronger teams than the other. Within District 3, BGP #1 St. X. and #3 Manual reside, plus a very strong Pleasure Ridge Park team. On the other side, no team from District 2 has received much statewide recognition.
District 3 #1 seed Saint Xavier is Kentucky’s only undefeated 6A team with a 9-0 record. Seeking to reach the finals for the fourth time in the past five years, the Tigers have averaged an astounding victory margin of 52-4 through the regular season. St. X. has shown a much more diverse attack this season with offensive sets varying from the wishbone to 5-wide shotgun. On the ground, returning All-State RB Deuce Finch leads the Tigers with a 10-yard per carry average. QB Matt Brutscher has completed 60% of his passes with his main targets being TE Brian Baucher and WR Steven Goodwin. Leading the way defensively are DE Trevor Foy, who has committed to Purdue, and SS DJ Hall.
The #2 seed is Manual (8-2), who come into the playoffs with victories over Central, Ballard, Seneca, Pleasure Ridge Park and Male. The Crimsons losses were a second game with Ballard and a lop-sided 57-0 against St. X. Having outscored their opponents by only 296-271, Manual has shown a great ability to overcome adversity and has won many games late. The offense is very balanced between pass and run, with QB Joey Harness, RB DJ Hawk, and RB James Clay leading the way.
The #3 seed is Pleasure Ridge Park at 4-4. The Panthers had two of their games cancelled due to a storm as well as a player’s death. 75% of the time they rely on the ground game for their yardage, using six different backs, led by Fuss Thompson who has 392 yards on 61 attempts in seven games. Keonte Reynolds leads an experienced defense in tackles. PRP has wins over a strong 5A Doss team and Seneca, and only lost to Ballard 7-6.
Occupying the final 4-seed is Butler (2-8), who was winless against a brutal schedule until the final two games when they defeated Holy Cross and Southern. Their losses included games against Eastern (31-19), Trinity (65-12), PRP (19-0), St. X. (63-0), Male (42-22), and Manual (40-21). The Bears depend mainly on the run and are led by Deangelo Thomas who has 882 yards on 134 attempts.
The top seed in District 2 goes to Greenwood (6-4), who enters the playoffs with two straight defeats at the hands of Central Hardin (14-7) and Scott County (48-20). The Gators surprised many by winning the district title after being picked in preseason to battle Central Hardin for last place. They run a very well balanced attack with 1,300 yards on the ground and 1,600 yards through the air. QB Logan Pemberton, RB Hunter Thompson, RB Dee Anderson, and WR Ricky Adams are the main offensive contributors. On the defensive side of the ball, LB Sam Wilson has an amazing 96 solo and 38 assisted tackles through only nine games.
The #2 seed for District 2 is Meade County (5-5). The Green Wave lost 20 seniors off of last season’s final 4 team. They have only scored 127 points, while surrendering 232, but they do enter the playoffs with a 21-0 victory last week over a respected 5A Woodford County. Meade was defeated 30-6 by Greenwood during the regular season. No team stats were available.
North Hardin (4-6) fell to the #3 seed after being the preseason favorite to win the district. The Trojans lost two close games which cost them dearly, Greenwood (24-20) and Meade County (10-7). They also dropped a 36-10 decision to PRP in their last game.
They depend on the air game for 65% of their offense, as QB Larod King has 115 completions in 216 attempts for 1352 yards. Josh Stone and Cyshawn Jones are the leading receivers. Ashton Little, Austin berry, and Marcell Haynes are the leading tacklers.
Nelson County (4-6) claimed the #4 seed in a disappointing season after opening with a 24-18 victory over Bardstown. Their losses included games to Greenwood (35-9), Meade County (42-21), and North Hardin (33-27). The Cardinals did claim a 31-28 victory over Butler. The offense is very unbalanced with 2494 yards on the ground and 477 through the air. The main rusher is RB Quentin Brooks with 1122 yards on 191 attempts, followed by QB Jordan King with 526 yards on 120 attempts. The defense has given up over 31 points per game.
In the Region 2 first round games, as noted above, District 3 appears to be dominant in all games but one. Saint Xavier and Manual should easily vanquish Nelson County and North Hardin, while Pleasure Ridge Park hands Meade County a two touchdown defeat. Greenwood avoids giving District 3 a sweep by scoring late to edge a surprisingly competitive Butler team.
In the second round, St. X. repeats its regular season spanking of PRP, and Manual, behind its speedy offense, ends Greenwood’s hopes of hosting the Regional Final.
In their regular season game, Manual fell behind early to St. X,. and things seemed to fall apart after that for the Crimsons, as they committed numerous turnovers on their way to a 57-0 loss to the Tigers. Manual holds on to the ball much better this game, and their offense provides the X-men a strong test, but the Tigers just have too much ammunition on both sides of the ball.
Region 2 Final Prediction: Saint Xavier 41 – Manual 13
Region 3 (District 6 vs. District 7)
This Region should be highly competitive and provide some very interesting games. With both St. X. and Trinity on the other side of the bracket, each team feels they have a great opportunity to get to the State Final.
The District 6 #1 seed is Boone County (7-3). The Rebels went undefeated through their district, losing only to Scott County 23-14 in the season opener, and to Henry Clay 14-7 and Madison Central 22-16 in their final two games. Boone pounded their opponents on the ground with a smash attack to accumulate 2774 yards while surrendering only 986 rushing yards. Charles Quainoo was the main hammer with 1887 yards on 282 carries for 21 touchdowns. Jordan Oppenheimer provided the chief assistance with 439 yards on 98 carries. A strong running attack and a strong run defense are the trademarks of the Rebels.
The #2 seed is a surprising Conner (6-4) team, who finished only 1-9 in 2007 and was not expected to do much better this season. They defeated Simon Kenton (20-19) and Ryle (17-14), and were barely edged by Boone County (28-21). For the season, Conner outscored their opponents 312-193. They rely heavily on a strong passing attack to account for 65% of their total offensive yardage. QB Nick West does it all for Conner, throwing for 2,015 yards and rushing for an additional 476. William Engleman is the leading receiver with 675 yards and seven touchdowns. Tyler Geiman is the leading tackler with 73 solos and 28 assists.
Ryle (5-5) claims the #3 seed. The Raiders best showings were probably in two losses. They held 5A power Highlands to their lowest margin in a 26-6 loss, and also dropped a narrow 38-37 decision to a strong Fern Creek team. Ryle averaged 26 points per game and their yardage was evenly accumulated between pass and run. QB Conner Hempel threw for 1362 yards and 17 touchdowns, and WR Cody Ferguson hauled in 39 passes for 428 yards and six touchdowns. RB’s Keifer Eubank and Travis Elliot ran for 760 and 519 yards respectively.
Simon Kenton (6-4) received the #4 seed in District 6 with a 15-7 win over Campbell County. Within the district they lost to Conner (20-19), Boone County (42-7) and Ryle (26-18). They rely heavily on a ground assault with 2,645 yards, compared to only 641 yards passing. RB Miles Simpson powered his way for 1,584 yards on 164 attempts to score 24 touchdowns. Matt Neal leads the team on defense with 38 solo tackles and 54 assists.
Lafayette (7-3) emerged with the #1 seed in District 7. The Generals defeated Henry Clay (24-14) and Tates Creek (12-7), but suffered a humiliating loss against Trinity (65-0) in the final regular season game. Defense was the key to victory for Lafayette through the first nine games, as they only yielded 9 points per game average. The Generals were very pedestrian on offense, gaining only 1,350 rushing and 870 yards passing for the entire season. RB Eric Shaw led the team in rushing with 749 yards on 112 carries.
After a horrific 0-4 start, Henry Clay finished with five straight victories to get the #2 seed. The Blue Devils defeated Tates Creek (32-6), and claimed a 14-7 decision over Boone County in the final regular season game. This victory over Boone County set off a 6A alarm throughout the state, making everyone aware that Henry Clay had finally ironed out the wrinkles and was ready for title-contending business as usual. Returning All-State center Sam Simpson anchors the OL. RB Tyler Hooker provides the main ground yardage, while QB Cole Mielcarek passes to WR Jason Rider for the air yardage. LB Mike Federspiel leads the defense.
The #3 seed is Tates Creek (2-8), whose only district win was Paul Dunbar (28-27). They also have losses to George Rogers Clark (25-7) and Scott County (34-20). Tates Creek has been outscored by a whopping 296 to 147, while losing the rushing battle 1713 to 799 in yardage. Offensively they run a balanced pass/run attack. RB Rozell James is the leading rusher with 400 yards, while QB Chris Kemlin has passed for 1,079 yards and 12 touchdowns to six different receivers.
Paul Dunbar (1-9) claims the #4 seed. This team was expected to vie for Top 10 honors in 6A early last summer, but injures, desertions, and suspensions severely crippled this potential. Their only victory was over 5A Southwestern (29-27). Outside of their district they suffered major defeats to Scott County (45-7) and Trinity (56-0). For the season Dunbar has been outscored 422-99. No stats are available.
In the first round games the higher seeded teams should win out. Lafayette’s strong defense will bend a lot trying to stop Simon Kenton’s strong rushes by Miles Simpson, but will hold on for a hard-fought 10-7 win. Henry Clay has too many athletes for Ryle, as the Blue Devils win easily. Connor and Boone County easily dispose of Tates Creek and Paul Dunbar with runaway wins.
This second round gets interesting as Lafayette’s usually reliable defense is unable to stop Nick West on either the ground or the air, and Conner moves on to the final. Henry Clay shows that its regular season victory is no fluke by again beating Boone County, this time by a more comfortable 20-7 score.
As the two #2 seeds enter the final, it looks to be a coin toss as to who walks out with the win. I just have a feeling that one team gets a late fumble recovery to seal a tight victory.
Region 3 Final Prediction: Henry Clay 16 – Conner 14
Region 4 (District 4 vs. District 8)
As was the case with Region 3, some very interesting contests will be played in Region 4, as the teams vie for a wide open slot in the State Final.
In District 4, Male (6-4), although a shadow of their normal teams, still claims the #1 seed. The Bulldogs outscored their opposition by 309-217, with most of their games being high scoring affairs. Unlike past years, Male did not have a skilled passing QB, so they reverted to using their speed on the ground.
Super fast Justin Green, who committed to Ohio State, missed three games because of injury, but still rumbled for 505 yards. RB’s Stewart Brown and Pookie Story provided able assistance with 511 and 420 yards respectively. QB Dexter Britt has shown that the pass is not totally gone by throwing for 1042 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Male is not blessed with large defensive linemen, but they still attack with their 10 men in the box pressing defense. The Bulldogs have wins over 5A Christian County (49-14), Bullitt Central (56-21), and Fern Creek (31-14), but have dropped decisions to Ballard (30-13), Eastern (21-14), and Manual (24-41). Luckily for Male the 6A teams who defeated them are all in the opposite bracket.
Fern Creek (6-3) is the #2 seed. They hold victories over Bullitt Central (53-26), 5A Doss (26-25) Ballard (31-21), and Southern (35-30). Losses have come at the hands of Male (31-14), Seneca (38-15), and Eastern (21-20). Despite the presence of QB Bryan Hynes who has thrown for 1,243 yards and 12 touchdowns in six games, the Tigers surprisingly balance their offense on the ground. RB Jimmie Welch leads with 633 yards on 105 carries, followed by Andre Brown with 306 yards on 41 carries. QB Hynes will also pull down the ball, and has run effectively for 198 yards on 33 carries.
Bullitt Central surprised everyone by finishing 8-2 to claim the #3 seed. The Cougars hold a 40-22 victory over Southern, but were humbled mightily by the speed of Male (56-21) and Fern Creek (53-26). Outside of Southern, all of their wins have come against lower class competition. Bullitt Central favors the run over the pass by a 2:1 margin, amassing 2,431 rushing and 1,075 passing yards in ten games.
They have an excellent RB in Jeremy Bennett, who has carried for 1,272 yards on 196 attempts for 13 touchdowns. QB Damon Wibbles has thrown for 1,038 yards and 17 touchdowns with TJ Flener and Jesse Vittitoe being his favorite receivers. The defense is led in tackles by Cory Brown and Jackie Hornback.
In District 8, Scott County (8-2) has won the #1 seed. The Cardinals have wins over Madison Central (24-21), George Rogers Clark (35-7), Shelby County (40-9), Boone County (23-14) and Greenwood (48-20). The Cardinals losses were to 4A Lexington Catholic (16-10) and 5A Oldham County (24-17). While outscoring their opponents 329-158, they have rushed for 2,780 yards and thrown for only 630 yards.
RB Jose Smith carries most of the ground attack, gaining 1,347 yards on 195 attempts for 15 touchdowns. Cody Skimmerhorn is the leading tackler on defense.
Madison Central (8-2) gets the #2 seed. The Indians hold victories over George Rogers Clark (49-35), Paul Dunbar (57-6), Shelby County (28-6), and Boone County (22-16). Besides Scott County, the only other team to defeat them was 5A power Highlands (46-0). Through eight games the Indians rushed for 1,960 yards and passed for only 623 yards. This team relies heavily on the superior speed of its backs. Isaiah Kavanaugh averages 10 yards/carry, Shane King averages 9 yards/carry, and Keshawn Simpson averages 7 yards/carry.
George Rogers Clark (6-4) is the District 8 #3 seed. In nine games they have rushed for 2,101 yards and passed for an additional 813 yards. RB Ryan Williams has cruised for 1, 757 yards on 184 attempts while scoring 20 touchdowns. On defense the leading tacklers are Robbie Hisle with 107 and Chas Campbell with 83, while DB Darius Skinner has corralled 6 interceptions.
Shelby County (1-9) is the #4 seed with their only victory coming against 5A South Oldham (62-7). Even with the Rockets big margin in their only victory, they have been outscored 282-204. Offensively, 70% of their plays are pass attempts. QB Branden Cresap has 826 yards passing in only three games , while QB Matthew Page (moved from WR after injury to Cresap) has 673 yards in eight games.
In the first round games for Region 4, Male’s offensive speed and defensive pressure will wilt Shelby County to a 5 TD defeat. Fern Creek will bedazzle George Rogers Clark with the passing of Hynes and the rushing speed of Welch and Brown for a 38-14 victory. Bullitt Central has shown in its two losses that it has a major problem with containing fast running attacks, which is sadly what the Cougars will see too often from Madison Central. The Indians will roll by 24 points. Scott County just has too much of everything for Southern, and can name the score.
In the second round, the games become much tighter. When Male and Madison Central face each other, they may think they are looking in a mirror, considering the speed on which they both depend. This will soon resemble a track meet as the score mounts. Madison Central has the ball last and scores in the last moment for the win.
Scott County will control the game clock with its strong rushing attack against Fern Creek, denying Hynes much time for smoothing out the Tigers strong passing game. Scott County moves on with a 28-17 win over Fern Creek.
Scott County and Madison Central face each other for the second time this season, with the Cardinals having emerged victorious 24-21 in the first encounter. It’s tougher beating a good team the second time around.
Region 4 Final Prediction: Madison Central 28 – Scott County 20
Sleeper Team: Conner - Although I show them being eliminated by Henry Clay in the Region 3 Final, I think that Conner has an outside chance of going all the way to the State Final. They just seem to be peaking at the right time; the bracketing keeps them away from the teams to whom they would be most vulnerable; and they have a pass/run star in Nick West who can carry them past adversity.
WKY State Semi-Final Prediction: Saint Xavier 21 – Trinity 14
EKY State Semi-Final Prediction: Henry Clay 23 – Madison Central 21
State Title Prediction: Saint Xavier 38 – Henry Clay 7