The Scribe
11-01-2005, 12:01 AM
Region 1
Favorite: Bowling Green
Top challengers: Hopkinsville
Outlook: Bowling Green brought unblemished records into the postseason in 2003 and 2004, only to lose in the second round of the playoffs to more battle-tested teams such as Hopkinsville and Madisonville. Not wanting a repeat, Bowling Green coach Kevin Wallace beefed up his team’s non-district schedule by taking on St. Xavier in the season opener.
The Purples (9-1) have proven their mettle by competing with two of the state’s best teams, moving into the #1 spot in the BluegrassPreps.com rankings after falling 13-7 to St. Xavier (#1 in Class 4A) and beating archrival Warren Central, another top-5 team in 4A.
Bowling Green has done it with a suffocating defense that has posted six consecutive shutouts and allowed a mere 33 points in 10 games. Brandon Nestor anchors a strong line at DE, and a fast, hard-hitting linebacker corps (led by Chris Tucker, Tucker Jackson and Avery Hibbitt) and ball-hawking secondary (led by Bradley Barlow, Chip Wilkins, Carlos Fugate and Ryan Beard) give the Purples unparalleled pursuit on the outside. Some see the Purples’ secondary as perhaps the state’s best.
The Purples’ offense has rotated two sophomores at QB, but Hibbitt and Chris Reynolds are big-play threats out of the backfield, and the offense rarely suffers from poor field position. Casey Tinius is a solid kicker. Junior OT Stuart Hines (6-4, 280) is one of the state’s best prospects and is drawing interest from a slew of big-time college programs.
Bowling Green has been ultra-dominant since midseason, outscoring their six district opponents 346-0 and has a streak of 27 consecutive scoreless quarters. That run could easily extend two or three games into the postseason.
Hopkinsville (7-3 and ranked seventh by BGP) appears to be the only legitimate challenger. Seasoned by a rugged early-season schedule (losses to Male, archrival Christian County and Alcoa, a defending state champion in Tennessee), the Tigers have won five straight games with RB Emmanuel Taylor and QB Chris Thomas sparking the offense and a solid defense led by NG Levar Weston, a four-year starter.
The speed and power of Taylor, a transfer from Colorado, has added another dimension to the offense, and Thomas has emerged as a running threat.
Franklin-Simpson and Paducah Tilghman should reach the semifinals, but both were hammered in their respective district championship games and would have to pull an upset to get past the second round.
Regional finals prediction: Bowling Green 27, Hopkinsville 7
Region 2
Favorite: Bullitt East
Top challenger: Boyle County, Southwestern
Outlook: It seems awfully strange to not have Boyle County automatically penciled into the semifinals, but the Rebels seem to have finally turned the corner after an incredible run of six straight championship-game appearances and five state titles that was followed by heavy graduation losses and a high-profile coaching change.
Undefeated Bullitt East (#5 in the BGP poll) is considered the favorite by many, boasting a potent offense led by RB Corey Rakes, QB Travis Broughton and WR Kyle Mullins and home-field advantage for the first three rounds.
There are questions, however, about whether or not the Chargers have been sufficiently prepared for the postseason. District 3 might be the weakest in Class 3A, and Bullitt East’s two non-district opponents have a combined record of 3-17.
Boyle (9-1) hasn’t played quite as tough a schedule as some of its teams of the recent past, but the Rebels own a win over Danville, the top-ranked team in Class A. First-year QB Grant Tamme has two very good in receivers in brother Seth Tamme and Casey Brummett. The defense, led by Seth Tamme, Brummett and Hagen Smith in the secondary and LB Andrew Bertram has made steady improvement.
Southwestern (6-4) has played one of the tougher schedules in 3A, and has an equally tough road to the regional finals — the Warriors would have to win at Bullitt East before getting a shot at Boyle, which beat them 20-15 at midseason.
Regional finals prediction: Boyle County 27, Bullitt East 19
Region 3
Favorite: Lexington Catholic
Top challengers: Highlands, Covington Catholic
Outlook: Is there any doubt that this is the strongest region in Class 3A? Lexington Catholic, Highlands and Covington Catholic hold down the second, third and fourth slots in the BGP rankings, and each of them has the talent to make it to the carpet in Louisville in December.
Lexington Catholic’s depth and second-line personnel were questioned in the preseason, but the Knights’ performance — including a 37-34 loss to St. Xavier in August, a game decided by a last-second field goal — has answered every question.
Paced by QB Justin Burke, a top Mr. Football candidate who might be the most indispensable player in the state, the Knights have emerged as the favorite to win the program‘s first regional title.
Burke, who committed to North Carolina State earlier this fall, has put together some amazing numbers — 2,654 yards and an eye-popping 47 touchdowns with a mere two interceptions. It can be argued that Burke has had the best single season of any high school QB in Kentucky history.
Wideouts Cornell Burbage and Wes Caldwell have been his favorite targets, combining for 98 receptions, 1,718 yards and 30 TDs.
Highlands and Covington Catholic, fierce rivals in northern Kentucky, will pose serious threats to the Burke-led Knights. They staged a memorable district-title game last weekend, with Highlands scoring in the fourth period to win 28-21 and earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
As usual, Highlands faced perhaps the state’s toughest schedule, particularly in Class 3A. The Bluebirds survived a brutal four-game stretch that included losses to two defending state champions — St. Xavier and Cincinnati Colerain — and Columbus St. Francis DeSales, another Ohio power. Highlands rebounded well, however, beating Madison Central in its last non-district game and winning the district crown at CovCath.
Highlands’ best player may be TE-LB Ben Guidugli. QB Chase Cecil, who sometimes shares the position with Chad Hudepohl, has played the best football of his career down the stretch. Jordan Kramer is a small, quick RB that has emerged as the Bluebirds‘ best runner.
The Bluebirds could have a tough second-round game against either South Oldham or Franklin County, two participants in what might be 3A’s best opening-round matchup. Highlands barely beat South Oldham two weeks ago, surviving an upset bid with a 21-20 victory. South Oldham has had a difficult season, forced to forfeit four early-season wins because of the use of an ineligible player and the death of an assistant coach, James "Bubba" McCollum, during the season.
Franklin County (9-1) has made an amazing about-face after going 0-10 in 2002, with junior QB Kaelin Ammons compiling some astounding numbers — combining his running and passing, Ammons has amassed more than 3,300 yards and accounted for 49 TDs.
Covington Catholic (6-4) may have played the state’s toughest schedule, with three of the Colonels’ four losses coming to powerhouse programs in Ohio. CovCath was competitive in a 16-6 loss to Cincinnati Moeller, but was pounded by Cincinnati St. Xavier and Bishop Watterson from Columbus, and there are some that think the Colonels might have peaked a bit early.
First-year coach John Rodenburg has a versatile offense led by QB Drew Ellison, who can occasionally line up at TB. Ellison is the Colonels’ leading rusher and has accounted for more than 2,300 yards of offense, running and passing. Nick Buckley and Joe Smith also share the running load, and receiver Kurt Bovard has caught 53 passes.
The Colonels’ defense is stout against the run, led by LB Sean McGee and DT Mike Hudson, but its pass rush and secondary will be severely put to the test in a second-round visit to Lexington Catholic.
Regional final prediction: Lexington Catholic 28, Highlands 23
Region 4
Favorite: Bell County
Top challengers: Ashland, Johnson Central, Rockcastle County
Outlook: Any one of the aforementioned teams could emerge as the regional champion — if Bell County has an edge, it is in the fact that the Bobcats have home-field advantage in the regional rounds. Few places are tougher to win at in the postseason, as eventual state champion Highlands found out last fall.
Nobody is a clear favorite, though. Bell (8-2) has an eight-game winning streak after starting the season with back-to-back losses to heavyweights Knoxville Central (a top-5 team in Tennessee’s Class 4A) and Henry Clay. But the Bobcats haven’t been dominant, either — three of their district wins were by a touchdown or less.
Ashland (8-2) has a nice passing combination in QB Ian Holbrook (a better than 60 percent completion rate) and big-play receivers Angel Gurule and Drew McDavid. If RB Matt Thomas, injured for much of the season, can recover in time to be a factor in the playoffs, Ashland has another weapon at its disposal.
Both of the Tomcats’ losses are to ranked teams, Russell (#4 in Class 2A) and Ironton, a perennial power in Ohio.
Johnson Central (8-2) has made a startling turnaround under veteran head coach Jim Matney over the last two seasons, losing to Ashland in the district championship game after missing a potential game-tying field goal in the final seconds. The Eagles have a punishing ground game, built on the strength of a veteran offensive line that has opened holes for 2,000-yard rusher Ron Blume.
Rockcastle County (8-2) can’t be overlooked, either. The Rockets were thumped by Danville at the start of the season, but came within a single play of winning the district title, losing 33-29 to Bell before hammering Madison Southern (who had also lost a close game to Bell) 35-7 to secure the runner-up spot.
Of the top four seeds, Johnson Central appears to have the toughest playoff opener, against Madison Southern. If the top seeds win, it won’t be a surprise to see both semifinals and the regional finals going down to the wire.
Regional final prediction: Bell County 20, Ashland 14
Semifinal predictions
Bowling Green 23, Boyle County 7
Lexington Catholic 37, Bell County 14
Championship prediction:
Bowling Green 26, Lexington Catholic 14
Favorite: Bowling Green
Top challengers: Hopkinsville
Outlook: Bowling Green brought unblemished records into the postseason in 2003 and 2004, only to lose in the second round of the playoffs to more battle-tested teams such as Hopkinsville and Madisonville. Not wanting a repeat, Bowling Green coach Kevin Wallace beefed up his team’s non-district schedule by taking on St. Xavier in the season opener.
The Purples (9-1) have proven their mettle by competing with two of the state’s best teams, moving into the #1 spot in the BluegrassPreps.com rankings after falling 13-7 to St. Xavier (#1 in Class 4A) and beating archrival Warren Central, another top-5 team in 4A.
Bowling Green has done it with a suffocating defense that has posted six consecutive shutouts and allowed a mere 33 points in 10 games. Brandon Nestor anchors a strong line at DE, and a fast, hard-hitting linebacker corps (led by Chris Tucker, Tucker Jackson and Avery Hibbitt) and ball-hawking secondary (led by Bradley Barlow, Chip Wilkins, Carlos Fugate and Ryan Beard) give the Purples unparalleled pursuit on the outside. Some see the Purples’ secondary as perhaps the state’s best.
The Purples’ offense has rotated two sophomores at QB, but Hibbitt and Chris Reynolds are big-play threats out of the backfield, and the offense rarely suffers from poor field position. Casey Tinius is a solid kicker. Junior OT Stuart Hines (6-4, 280) is one of the state’s best prospects and is drawing interest from a slew of big-time college programs.
Bowling Green has been ultra-dominant since midseason, outscoring their six district opponents 346-0 and has a streak of 27 consecutive scoreless quarters. That run could easily extend two or three games into the postseason.
Hopkinsville (7-3 and ranked seventh by BGP) appears to be the only legitimate challenger. Seasoned by a rugged early-season schedule (losses to Male, archrival Christian County and Alcoa, a defending state champion in Tennessee), the Tigers have won five straight games with RB Emmanuel Taylor and QB Chris Thomas sparking the offense and a solid defense led by NG Levar Weston, a four-year starter.
The speed and power of Taylor, a transfer from Colorado, has added another dimension to the offense, and Thomas has emerged as a running threat.
Franklin-Simpson and Paducah Tilghman should reach the semifinals, but both were hammered in their respective district championship games and would have to pull an upset to get past the second round.
Regional finals prediction: Bowling Green 27, Hopkinsville 7
Region 2
Favorite: Bullitt East
Top challenger: Boyle County, Southwestern
Outlook: It seems awfully strange to not have Boyle County automatically penciled into the semifinals, but the Rebels seem to have finally turned the corner after an incredible run of six straight championship-game appearances and five state titles that was followed by heavy graduation losses and a high-profile coaching change.
Undefeated Bullitt East (#5 in the BGP poll) is considered the favorite by many, boasting a potent offense led by RB Corey Rakes, QB Travis Broughton and WR Kyle Mullins and home-field advantage for the first three rounds.
There are questions, however, about whether or not the Chargers have been sufficiently prepared for the postseason. District 3 might be the weakest in Class 3A, and Bullitt East’s two non-district opponents have a combined record of 3-17.
Boyle (9-1) hasn’t played quite as tough a schedule as some of its teams of the recent past, but the Rebels own a win over Danville, the top-ranked team in Class A. First-year QB Grant Tamme has two very good in receivers in brother Seth Tamme and Casey Brummett. The defense, led by Seth Tamme, Brummett and Hagen Smith in the secondary and LB Andrew Bertram has made steady improvement.
Southwestern (6-4) has played one of the tougher schedules in 3A, and has an equally tough road to the regional finals — the Warriors would have to win at Bullitt East before getting a shot at Boyle, which beat them 20-15 at midseason.
Regional finals prediction: Boyle County 27, Bullitt East 19
Region 3
Favorite: Lexington Catholic
Top challengers: Highlands, Covington Catholic
Outlook: Is there any doubt that this is the strongest region in Class 3A? Lexington Catholic, Highlands and Covington Catholic hold down the second, third and fourth slots in the BGP rankings, and each of them has the talent to make it to the carpet in Louisville in December.
Lexington Catholic’s depth and second-line personnel were questioned in the preseason, but the Knights’ performance — including a 37-34 loss to St. Xavier in August, a game decided by a last-second field goal — has answered every question.
Paced by QB Justin Burke, a top Mr. Football candidate who might be the most indispensable player in the state, the Knights have emerged as the favorite to win the program‘s first regional title.
Burke, who committed to North Carolina State earlier this fall, has put together some amazing numbers — 2,654 yards and an eye-popping 47 touchdowns with a mere two interceptions. It can be argued that Burke has had the best single season of any high school QB in Kentucky history.
Wideouts Cornell Burbage and Wes Caldwell have been his favorite targets, combining for 98 receptions, 1,718 yards and 30 TDs.
Highlands and Covington Catholic, fierce rivals in northern Kentucky, will pose serious threats to the Burke-led Knights. They staged a memorable district-title game last weekend, with Highlands scoring in the fourth period to win 28-21 and earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
As usual, Highlands faced perhaps the state’s toughest schedule, particularly in Class 3A. The Bluebirds survived a brutal four-game stretch that included losses to two defending state champions — St. Xavier and Cincinnati Colerain — and Columbus St. Francis DeSales, another Ohio power. Highlands rebounded well, however, beating Madison Central in its last non-district game and winning the district crown at CovCath.
Highlands’ best player may be TE-LB Ben Guidugli. QB Chase Cecil, who sometimes shares the position with Chad Hudepohl, has played the best football of his career down the stretch. Jordan Kramer is a small, quick RB that has emerged as the Bluebirds‘ best runner.
The Bluebirds could have a tough second-round game against either South Oldham or Franklin County, two participants in what might be 3A’s best opening-round matchup. Highlands barely beat South Oldham two weeks ago, surviving an upset bid with a 21-20 victory. South Oldham has had a difficult season, forced to forfeit four early-season wins because of the use of an ineligible player and the death of an assistant coach, James "Bubba" McCollum, during the season.
Franklin County (9-1) has made an amazing about-face after going 0-10 in 2002, with junior QB Kaelin Ammons compiling some astounding numbers — combining his running and passing, Ammons has amassed more than 3,300 yards and accounted for 49 TDs.
Covington Catholic (6-4) may have played the state’s toughest schedule, with three of the Colonels’ four losses coming to powerhouse programs in Ohio. CovCath was competitive in a 16-6 loss to Cincinnati Moeller, but was pounded by Cincinnati St. Xavier and Bishop Watterson from Columbus, and there are some that think the Colonels might have peaked a bit early.
First-year coach John Rodenburg has a versatile offense led by QB Drew Ellison, who can occasionally line up at TB. Ellison is the Colonels’ leading rusher and has accounted for more than 2,300 yards of offense, running and passing. Nick Buckley and Joe Smith also share the running load, and receiver Kurt Bovard has caught 53 passes.
The Colonels’ defense is stout against the run, led by LB Sean McGee and DT Mike Hudson, but its pass rush and secondary will be severely put to the test in a second-round visit to Lexington Catholic.
Regional final prediction: Lexington Catholic 28, Highlands 23
Region 4
Favorite: Bell County
Top challengers: Ashland, Johnson Central, Rockcastle County
Outlook: Any one of the aforementioned teams could emerge as the regional champion — if Bell County has an edge, it is in the fact that the Bobcats have home-field advantage in the regional rounds. Few places are tougher to win at in the postseason, as eventual state champion Highlands found out last fall.
Nobody is a clear favorite, though. Bell (8-2) has an eight-game winning streak after starting the season with back-to-back losses to heavyweights Knoxville Central (a top-5 team in Tennessee’s Class 4A) and Henry Clay. But the Bobcats haven’t been dominant, either — three of their district wins were by a touchdown or less.
Ashland (8-2) has a nice passing combination in QB Ian Holbrook (a better than 60 percent completion rate) and big-play receivers Angel Gurule and Drew McDavid. If RB Matt Thomas, injured for much of the season, can recover in time to be a factor in the playoffs, Ashland has another weapon at its disposal.
Both of the Tomcats’ losses are to ranked teams, Russell (#4 in Class 2A) and Ironton, a perennial power in Ohio.
Johnson Central (8-2) has made a startling turnaround under veteran head coach Jim Matney over the last two seasons, losing to Ashland in the district championship game after missing a potential game-tying field goal in the final seconds. The Eagles have a punishing ground game, built on the strength of a veteran offensive line that has opened holes for 2,000-yard rusher Ron Blume.
Rockcastle County (8-2) can’t be overlooked, either. The Rockets were thumped by Danville at the start of the season, but came within a single play of winning the district title, losing 33-29 to Bell before hammering Madison Southern (who had also lost a close game to Bell) 35-7 to secure the runner-up spot.
Of the top four seeds, Johnson Central appears to have the toughest playoff opener, against Madison Southern. If the top seeds win, it won’t be a surprise to see both semifinals and the regional finals going down to the wire.
Regional final prediction: Bell County 20, Ashland 14
Semifinal predictions
Bowling Green 23, Boyle County 7
Lexington Catholic 37, Bell County 14
Championship prediction:
Bowling Green 26, Lexington Catholic 14