Hensley Rating System Playoff State Semifinal Predictions

Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for each class and the HRS predictions:

Class 1A

Beechwood 91.15

Lexington Christian 83.15

Hazard 66.25

Crittenden County 63.40

Crittenden County at Beechwood – BHS by 33.75

LCA at Hazard – LCA by 10.9

Class 2A

Fort Campbell 93.05

Newport Central Catholic 91.00

Corbin 78.50

Monroe County 76.85

Fort Campbell at Monroe County – FC by 10.2

Newport Central Catholic at Corbin – NCC by 6.5

Class 3A

Central 93.50

Belfry 86.45

Breathitt County 81.95

Union County 60.30

Union County at Central – CHS by 39.2

Breathitt County at Belfry – BHS by 10.5

Class 4A

Boyle County 101.65

Bell County 100.30

Bullitt East 81.80

Calloway County 76.45

Calloway County at Bullitt East – BE by 11.35

Boyle County at Bell County – BELL by 4.65

Class 5A

Highlands 115.40

John Hardin 96.40

Christian County 92.90

Whitley County 90.10

Christian County at John Hardin – JH by 9.5

Highlands at Whitley County – HHS by 19.3

Class 6A

St. Xavier 126.60

Trinity (Louisville) 119.30

Male 96.55

Simon Kenton 88.80

Trinity v/s St. Xavier*** – X by 7.3

Simon Kenton at Male – H by 13.75

***St. Xavier is the designated home team in the bracket but will not be receiving the points for home field advantage since the game is being played at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium.

Those look like solid predictions. Must see games of the week are Boyle vs. Bell, New Cath vs. Corbin and St. X vs Trinity. Who is the most likely upset of the week...Monroe County perhaps?

Looks like the Hensley ratings are predicting rematches for the state titles in 1A - 3A.

Looks good. Thanks.....

Looks like the Hensley ratings are predicting rematches for the state titles in 1A - 3A.

Looks like some good matchups.

Edited December 2, 200817 yr by Justafan2
Mistake

Those look like solid predictions. Must see games of the week are Boyle vs. Bell, New Cath vs. Corbin and St. X vs Trinity. Who is the most likely upset of the week...Monroe County perhaps?

Nope, I would say Christian County over JH.

Nope, I would say Christian County over JH.

That is one that I too personally think could go the way of the Colonels. I think the others will probably be how I'd actually pick with maybe Boyle County over Bell County. Boyle County seems to be playing a little better at this point but we'll find out Friday night though.

That is one that I too personally think could go the way of the Colonels. I think the others will probably be how I'd actually pick with maybe Boyle County over Bell County. Boyle County seems to be playing a little better at this point but we'll find out Friday night though.

Yeah, Monroe County over Ft. Campbell might be too much of a stretch. I could see Christian County over John Hardin. In that class (5A) and in 2A the 4 teams with the best records are the four left. Boyle vs Bell is a pickem' game for me so whoever wins I would not consider it an upset.

I see Corbin over NCC as a real possibility.

I see Corbin over NCC as a real possibility.

I aree but that wouldn't really be much of an upset. That game is more of a pickem' contest also. Now Hazard over LCA would be an upset!

I aree but that wouldn't really be much of an upset. That game is more of a pickem' contest also. Now Hazard over LCA would be an upset!

Yes, I would be upset!! :cry: :madman:

I aree but that wouldn't really be much of an upset. That game is more of a pickem' contest also. Now Hazard over LCA would be an upset!

It wouldn't be an upset to me they have played 4 times in the past 2 season I believe they know each other pretty well. Don't see that being an upset maybe Hazard being a little more hungry this time around IMO.

It wouldn't be an upset to me they have played 4 times in the past 2 season I believe they know each other pretty well. Don't see that being an upset maybe Hazard being a little more hungry this time around IMO.

Congratulations, Commander 25, on your 1000th post! :thumb:

I think Corbin can win and would not consider it an upset. They are a very good football team.

Corbin and Christian County are the two I think can pull the upset.